Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. ADP employment number for March was 155,000, higher than the expected 115,000 and the previous value of 77,000. Analyst Adam Button noted that the March ADP data is a nice rebound considering the poor data from February. U.S. stock indices opened low and rose, with the Nasdaq index opening down 1.5% but gaining 1% during the day, while the S&P 500 index increased 0.6%.
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French Hill, the chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, rejected a proposal to allow interest payments on stablecoin holdings. Hill stated, 'While I understand this viewpoint, Congress has not yet reached a consensus on interest payments to holders of dollar-collateralized stablecoins.' Regardless of how quickly its influence grows, it remains a novelty for most people. Cointelegraph reported that six digital economy trade organizations in the UK are calling for the appointment of a dedicated envoy for blockchain and crypto asset affairs and for an exclusive action plan to promote investment, growth, and employment in the industry. Trump has established a head for crypto affairs in the U.S. and is increasing investment in crypto policy, suggesting that the UK can seize global competitive opportunities through trade agreements with the U.S. in technology cooperation, establishing a leading position in the digital asset and fintech sectors. CNBC reported that OpenAI has completed a $40 billion financing round led by SoftBank, with a post-funding valuation of $300 billion. Stablecoin issuer Circle submitted an S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to initiate an initial public offering (IPO) process, targeting a valuation of $4 billion to $5 billion. Sony Electronics Singapore announced that its online store now supports stablecoin payments, with plans to increase support for other cryptocurrencies in the future. Japanese listed company Metaplanet Inc. announced an additional purchase of 160 BTC, raising its total holdings to 4,206 BTC, with an average price of approximately $86,267. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, predicts that index-based cryptocurrency ETFs will be approved by the end of the year (if not sooner).
Former Goldman Sachs economist Pandl believes that tariffs will increase demand for non-dollar currencies and argues that tariffs will weaken the dollar's dominance, creating space for competitors including BTC. While prices have declined in the short term, Trump has made BTC's long-term prospects as a U.S. monetary asset more solid in recent months. Despite the current market's pessimism regarding prices, Pandl still believes BTC will set a new all-time high this year. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes released a market outlook stating that he is no longer concerned about whether Trump will raise tariffs on April 2, as Powell commented during the March Fed meeting that 'any inflation caused by tariffs is temporary,' allowing the Fed to continue easing policy. If the Fed's major shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for government bonds is established, then BTC reached a local low of $76,500 last month and began to climb towards $250,000 by the end of the year, completely based on the market's expectations for future fiat currency supply. On April 1, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of $157.8 million, while the ETH spot ETF saw an outflow of $3.6 million. CoinDesk reported that GameStop (GME) has completed a $1.5 billion convertible note issuance, which may be used to purchase BTC. Last week, GameStop stated it has included BTC in its reserve plan. CryptoQuant researcher Alex released data showing that average daily selling pressure on mainstream platforms has sharply dropped from 81,000 BTC to 29,000 BTC, with current selling power tending towards exhaustion, laying the groundwork for a structural supply shortage. A calm before the next storm may form in the 4-5 month period. Tether increased its holdings by 8,888 BTC ($735 million) in the first quarter of this year, regularly using 15% of the company's profits to increase BTC reserves, currently holding 92,647 BTC.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. ADP employment number for March was 155,000, higher than the expected 115,000 and the previous value of 77,000. Analyst Adam Button stated, 'Given the poor data from February, the March ADP data represents a nice rebound.' U.S. stock indices opened low and rose, with the Nasdaq index opening down 1.5% but rising 1% during the day, and the S&P 500 index increasing 0.6%. BTC rose by 1.5% to reach $87,000. Media reports indicate that the White House announcement is set to be released at 4 PM Eastern Time (4 AM Thursday). BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated, 'Market anxiety about a U.S. economic recession exceeds any time in recent memory, with many concerns stemming from the uncertainty around Trump's tariff measures. The dollar risks losing its status as the global reserve currency and may be replaced by digital assets like BTC.' Wall Street strategists, who predicted the S&P 500 index would rise for the third consecutive year at the end of last year, now find their estimates for this year too optimistic, yet they still believe the stock market will rise in the remaining three quarters of 2025. Analyst Emanuel Cardozo stated that an economic recovery in the second quarter is possible, and the Fed is generally expected to cut interest rates within that quarter, with Trump also expected to deliver more specific results in support of cryptocurrency policies. Fed's Williams stated that he would not predict the likelihood of an economic recession, that long-term inflation expectations have stabilized, and that a slowdown in the Fed's balance sheet reduction is a natural next step.
Trump's tariff measures are set to take effect early Thursday morning, and the market has been declining for months in anticipation of this negative news. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq index opened low and rose, while BTC rebounded. The previous market concerns stemmed from the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff measures, necessitating attention to the tariff statement to be released on Thursday and the associated market volatility risks. Historical data for BTC shows that the average return in the second quarter over the past 12 years is 24.86%, with a median return of 7.19%; the average monthly return for April is 12.03%, with a median return of 2.81%. It is difficult to comment on Trump's so-called tariffs and other matters; we await the negative news to land and hope for a return to the Fed's plan of interest rate cuts in the second quarter of 2025.