Tonight! The small non-farm payroll and tariffs are released, Bitcoin's support at 80,000 is at risk, can the bull market set sail?
Bitcoin rebounded yesterday, breaking the four-hour MA200 for the second time since the decline in early February, but is still below the 200-day moving average. The CME gap formed last weekend has been completely filled, and the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are beginning to converge, similar to the situation in the third quarter of last year. The cost line for short-term holders is also showing convergence or overlapping trends. In previous rebounds, Bitcoin failed to break through these resistance levels. If uncertainty continues, the market may experience a longer period of consolidation, but will ultimately clarify its direction.
According to Crystal Count data, the realized price for short-term Bitcoin holders is currently $90,700. The cost line for holders in the 1 - 3 month group is at $97,300. Only by breaking through these key resistance levels can we confirm that the market has entered a bullish trend. Short-term holders are the most sensitive to price fluctuations; when the spot price is below the cost price, some may choose to sell at a loss, causing further price declines; when the price rebounds to the breakeven point, some may quickly sell to secure their capital; when the price is above the cost price, they are not only unlikely to sell but may also increase their positions, pushing the market up. From the perspective of short-term speculative funds, $97,300 is the average cost for the 1 - 3 month group buying Bitcoin; breaking through this area means that most funds begin to profit, and FOMO sentiment will rapidly spread, driving the bull market to fully unfold.
In the short term, the area between $80,000 and $83,500 has formed some support. If it falls below $80,000, it may again test the 50-week moving average and Bitcoin's 365-day moving average. The small non-farm ADP employment data will be released tonight, Trump will also announce tariff policies, and on Friday, non-farm employment data and unemployment rates will be released, with Powell also making a speech; these events are crucial this week.
