1. Life and Death Speed! Trump's tariff policy will be revealed tonight, and the global market hangs by a thread

Speed! Trump's tariff policy will be announced tonight, and the global market is on the verge of death
Currently, the focus is on the tariff policy, or more precisely, Trump's statement. The final result will be revealed later today or tomorrow morning. Due to the unclear direction in the short term, the global market is in a state of high tension and wait-and-see. Once the tariff policy is announced, it will directly determine the short-term direction of the market. If the tariff intensity is lower than market expectations, it may drive the market to rebound quickly; on the contrary, if it is higher than expected, the global economy will be hit and the market will face more difficulties.

The United States plans to impose a unified tariff of 25% on all cars not manufactured in the United States from April 3. If other major economies take reciprocal retaliatory measures, the stability of the global trade system will be greatly challenged, and the original multilateral trade order will also be impacted. The President of the European Commission warned yesterday that if necessary, the European Union will take countermeasures to deal with the new round of tariffs that Trump is about to announce.

In terms of market performance, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market rose yesterday. The market seems to be betting that Trump will not implement a tariff policy that seriously drags down the economy. After the announcement of Trump's tariff policy, market uncertainty will be reduced in the short term, but the risks of inflation and recession still exist. The inflation expectations report released by the University of Michigan shows that the long-term inflation expectations in the United States have risen to 4.1%, reaching the highest level since 1993, exceeding the expected value during the epidemic and major economic crises in the past few decades. This is closely related to the recent tariff adjustments, especially the changes in global commodity circulation policies, which makes the Atlanta Federal Reserve more pessimistic about economic growth and lowers the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 to -3.7%.

It is worth noting that the simultaneous occurrence of higher inflation and economic slowdown may cause stagflation and bring difficulties to the Fed's decision-making. Tariffs may push up inflation, while the economy continues to decline, and it is difficult for the Fed to stimulate the economy through large-scale interest rate cuts, thus forming a structural negative cycle. Rising consumer costs and slowing income and production activities will weaken the resilience of the economic system and hit market confidence. Under the dominance of uncertainty, a large amount of funds have withdrawn from the market and waited for clear signals.#美国加征关税 #美国投资加速器 #冲币新时代