Today, the BTC price has fallen below $84,000, currently at $83,992.60, with a daily drop of 1.52%, continuing the recent downward trend.

Technical analysis shows that the short-term support level for BTC has moved down to the range of $80,000-$84,000. If it further drops below $78,000, it may test the key support level of $75,000.

Macroeconomic Policy Impact

The Trump administration plans to announce a large-scale tariff policy at 4 AM Beijing time on April 3, including doubling tariffs on Asian countries and imposing a uniform 20% tariff on global goods. The market's risk-averse sentiment has intensified ahead of this policy implementation, putting pressure on U.S. stocks, and BTC, as a risk asset, has been affected accordingly.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has contracted to its lowest level since May 2023, combined with recession expectations, which has strengthened the flow of funds into safe-haven assets, but BTC has yet to fully demonstrate its 'digital gold' properties and remains influenced by U.S. stock movements in the short term.

Market Sentiment and Fund Flow

Panic Sentiment Spreading

The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 20 (extreme fear zone), reflecting investor concerns about policy uncertainty and economic data.

This week, BTC Spot ETF saw a net outflow of $719 million, with institutional funds withdrawing further intensifying selling pressure.

Technical Signals

BTC has fallen below the 200-day bull-bear divide, forming a descending channel, with short-term rebounds limited by the resistance level at $84,000. If it cannot stabilize at this position, it may continue to correct.

On-chain data shows that the market's floating profit rate is relatively high (long positions at 347% floating profit), but short positions are still in a floating loss state, suggesting that retail investors' selling pressure has not been fully released.

According to historical halving cycle models, 2025 is still seen as a potential bull market breakout year, but we are currently in a 'mid-cycle downturn' phase and need to wait for the activation signal at the end of 2024.

CZ believes that the strong correlation between BTC and economic indicators only applies in the short term, while in the long term, it is still dominated by supply and demand and halving cycles.

Short-term: Focus on buying opportunities in the $78,000-$75,000 support range, and be wary of market volatility after the tariff policy is implemented.

Medium to long-term: If BTC stabilizes above $80,000, gradual positioning can be considered; if it falls below $75,000, risk assessment needs to be re-evaluated.

Summary: Don't rush, stay steady, and look at the long term. I've already cut losses on altcoins. Let it be. Phew!