Bitcoin continues to be highly volatile during the Wall Street opening on April 1 as concerns about US trade tariffs make the market uneasy.
Bitcoin maintains volatility ahead of important tariffs
Data from TradingView shows that BTC/USD is highly volatile within the weekly trading range, around $84,000.
The US stock market opened slightly lower, while gold prices adjusted from the historical peak of $3,149 per ounce.
Concerns about an economic recession continue to rise as April 2 – known as the “Liberation Day” of former US President Donald Trump – approaches. Trump has pledged to announce a series of new trade tariffs at this time.
“The stock market is clearly pricing in a recession: The S&P 500 has dropped 2% since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began cutting interest rates in September 2024,” analyst Kobeissi Letter noted in a series of posts on X.
Kobeissi refers to the Fed's financial easing policy through interest rate cuts – a measure that is currently on pause. However, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market expects cuts to continue in June.
The probability of the Fed's target interest rate for the FOMC meeting on June 18
Although this may be a clear catalyst for the price increase of cryptocurrencies and risk assets, Kobeissi notes that history does not support a strong recovery scenario for the stock market under similar circumstances.
“When interest rates are cut during a recession, the S&P 500 index typically falls by an average of 6% within 6 months and loses 10% after 12 months,” Kobeissi wrote.
“Average returns after the pivot point only reach +1% in 6 months.”
Comparing the performance of the S&P 500 |
Trading firm QCP Capital also expressed a cautious view on the market amid increasing macroeconomic pressures.
“With consumer confidence falling to a 12-year low and the stock market plummeting with declines of 4-5% each week, this may be the worst time,” the company stated in its latest newsletter sent to subscribers on its Telegram channel.
“There is a real risk that a strong and widespread tariff system could raise concerns about recession, leading to a decline in risk assets. However, political factors often create room for adjustment. If the tariff policy is applied more gently than expected, the market could benefit from a temporary recovery.”
Bitcoin prices approach a critical resistance level
The price movements of Bitcoin keep market observers waiting for stronger signals of growth momentum, although the important support level at $80,000 remains firmly maintained.
“Today there is a bit of upward momentum, but this is still just a three-wave recovery, while the resistance level has not been broken,” the analysis channel More Crypto Online stated, based on the Elliott wave model on the 30-minute chart. The channel emphasized that “the current upward momentum needs to be demonstrated more.”
BTC/USD 30-minute chart |
Veteran trader Jelle also emphasized that the BTC/USD pair is still holding above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $76,600, indicating this is an important support level.
Jelle predicts that Bitcoin will soon recover to $84,500 in the next rally, after hitting this level and facing selling pressure earlier in the day.
Weekly BTC/USD chart with SMA 50 | Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, QCP Capital noted optimistic sentiment from investors as they target higher milestones.
“At our trading desk, the inflow of funds shows a positive trend right from the opening of the Asian market session,” the company stated.
“We are seeing concentrated call option activity in the $85,000-$90,000 price range, while hedge orders against downside risks are appearing around $75,000 – a signal reflecting confidence in a strong start for Q2.”
