The underlying logic of Filecoin is "the explosion of decentralized storage demand - storage providers need to pledge FIL - FIL demand increases", but in reality, most storage space is long-term idle, and the proportion of real data is low (much of it is inflated). If AI and Web3 truly generate massive storage demand in the future, and Filecoin can capture a share, then FIL will have fundamental support. However, currently, centralized giants like AWS and Google Cloud are cutting prices to seize the market, making FIL's cost-performance advantage not obvious, and there are no killer applications emerging in the ecosystem, which needs to be continuously observed.

A large amount of FIL pledged by early miners will be unlocked (released gradually from 2023 to 2025). If the project party does not adjust the release rules or introduce a new destruction mechanism, the selling pressure may continue to suppress the coin price. Recently, the rebound of FIL from the bottom is more of a hype around the AI + storage concept rather than an actual improvement in supply and demand. If there are no supporting data such as an increase in the pledge rate and a surge in real storage orders, the upward trend may be difficult to sustain.

If the bull market restarts in 2024, FIL, as a once-popular cryptocurrency, is likely to be speculated on by capital rotation, especially in the storage sector (such as AR, STORJ) which is easily correlated and lifted, but the extent may be weaker than MEME coins or new concept projects. If Bitcoin breaks key support levels (such as 60,000 USD), FIL may quickly correct, because its liquidity is not as strong as mainstream coins, and its downside resistance is poorer.

Personal opinion. In the short term (next 3-6 months), it is more affected by market sentiment and sector rotation, and there may be swing trading opportunities, but in the long run, it depends on whether the project can solve the problem of "having mining machines but no data". If there is no significant improvement in the real storage rate within the next year (for example, exceeding 30%), FIL may gradually be replaced by new projects. The risk lies in the team acting too slowly or the storage track being disrupted by other technical routes (such as decentralized CDN, integrated computing and storage).