From the analysis of liquidity and market sentiment, the current cryptocurrency market is nearing a phase bottom. Binance's daily trading volume has dropped to $40 billion, matching the liquidity low point in August 2024, indicating that the market's selling pressure has been fully released. The liquidity cycle shows that after reaching a peak of $665.8 billion on March 17, 2024, it has completed a five-month adjustment to form a bottom, with the current volume structure being similar.

On a macro level, short-term negative factors (tariff policy on April 2 and non-farm data on April 4) are about to run their course, while the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has risen to 80%-90%, which will create a certain positive effect. Historical data indicates that before a shift in monetary policy, the market often experiences a "last drop"; the currently sluggish trading volume reflects this characteristic of peak pessimism.

Combining CME interest rate futures pricing and the liquidity cycle, the market has established conditions for a reversal, and the capital inflow driven by rate cut expectations may start at any time. It is important to pay attention to the volume breaking the $40 billion threshold as a trend confirmation signal.