Historically, 90% of unlocks exert negative price pressure according to Keyrock’s analysis of 16,000+ events. Can a nearly $150 Million unlock trigger a new wave of panic sell off?
**Price Estimation**
To estimate SUI's potential price drop from its April 1 token unlock, we analyze both quantitative models and market context:
**Quantitive Model**
Unlock percentage = (64.19M / 3.17B) * 100 = 2.03%
Price drop = 25% (historical average for team unlocks)
Current Price = $2.32 → Estimated price = $1.74 (-58¢)
**Market Context Factors**
Bearish Signals
- Technical indicators: RSI at 44.5 (weak demand), MACD negative
- TVL Decline: Down 42% from January peak to $1.2B despite $5B DEX volume
- Market Sentiment: Occurs during broader crypto downturn
Bullish Signal
- Stable-coin cap doubled to $628M since December - 100M accounts milestone
- ETF filing speculation
**Critical Levels to Watch**
Immediate support: $2.23 (March 31 closing price)
Next support: $2.00 (psychological level)$
Resistance: $2.37 (20-day SMA)
Most analysts suggest prepared traders might find entry opportunities 2 weeks post-unlock when volatility typically subsides. The $1.74 projection serves as a worst-case benchmark, while the $2.00-$2.23 range appears more likely given $SUI 's growing utility metrics.