Analysis of the cryptocurrency market for next week:
Favorable Factors
- Monetary policy expectations: The Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace in April, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, which would improve market liquidity and be beneficial for the cryptocurrency market.
- ETF inflows: The US Bitcoin spot ETF continues to see capital inflows, with a net inflow of $84.17 million on March 24, totaling over $36 billion. If ETF inflows remain strong, it will support Bitcoin prices.
- Bitcoin halving effect: The Bitcoin halving effect in April 2024 may continue to unfold in April 2025, with reduced supply and recovering demand expected to drive Bitcoin prices higher.
Uncertain Factors
- Regulatory policies: Different countries and regions have varying regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies, and the uncertainty of these policies remains one of the significant risks facing the cryptocurrency market.
- Technological development: The development of blockchain technology in areas such as performance, security, and scalability will affect the credibility and practicality of cryptocurrencies, thereby influencing market trends.
Adverse Factors
- Cautious market sentiment: If market sentiment remains cautious, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may continue to be pressured below key support levels, potentially leading to further declines in the cryptocurrency market in the short term.
- Seasonal adjustments: Historical data shows that early April can sometimes see seasonal adjustments. If the current market's total market capitalization is close to a high, it may face profit-taking pressure.
- Impact of trade policies: Tariff policies that may be implemented on April 2 could impact the global economy. If trade protectionism intensifies, US stocks may come under pressure, and altcoins may be affected by capital diversion.
Overall, the trend of the cryptocurrency market in April 2025 is relatively complex, influenced by various factors, and is likely to be characterized by volatility.