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This Week's Macroeconomic Dynamics
1. US Economic Data: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has lowered the annualized growth rate of US GDP for the first quarter to -2.8% after the latest data release, sending out dangerous signals. Although the market generally bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice this year based on the Fed's dot plot, with the first rate cut possibly in June, last Friday's unexpectedly high PCE data raised new concerns, prompting the market to reassess the risk of stagflation and the impact of the tariffs to be implemented by Trump on the prices of goods and consumer products.
2. US Stock Market Performance: The US stock market experienced a "Black Friday," with the overall performance of the seven major tech giants in the first quarter being the worst in the past decade.
3. Global Central Bank Dynamics
- On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision.
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting.
- On Friday from 11 PM to 12 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the Vice Chairman will speak, and the market will pay close attention.
4. Important Economic Data This Week
- Tuesday: US March ISM Manufacturing PMI, February JOLTS Job Openings data.
- Wednesday: US ADP Employment Numbers.
- Friday: March Non-Farm Payroll data and unemployment rate.
However, the current market focus is on the details of the tariffs to be announced by Trump. On Wednesday (April 2), Trump will officially announce the details of the reciprocal tariffs. Until then, even if the economic data is important, the market may choose to ignore it. Trump's tariff policy is filled with uncertainty and contradictory statements; on one hand, he claims to be willing to reach agreements with other countries, while on the other hand, he emphasizes announcing reciprocal tariffs before considering other agreements, and there are reports of additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the tax rates have not yet been disclosed. This lack of transparency and wavering attitude has led the market to be extremely cautious. #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调 #金价走高
1. US Economic Data: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has lowered the annualized growth rate of US GDP for the first quarter to -2.8% after the latest data release, sending out dangerous signals. Although the market generally bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice this year based on the Fed's dot plot, with the first rate cut possibly in June, last Friday's unexpectedly high PCE data raised new concerns, prompting the market to reassess the risk of stagflation and the impact of the tariffs to be implemented by Trump on the prices of goods and consumer products.
2. US Stock Market Performance: The US stock market experienced a "Black Friday," with the overall performance of the seven major tech giants in the first quarter being the worst in the past decade.
3. Global Central Bank Dynamics
- On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision.
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting.
- On Friday from 11 PM to 12 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the Vice Chairman will speak, and the market will pay close attention.
4. Important Economic Data This Week
- Tuesday: US March ISM Manufacturing PMI, February JOLTS Job Openings data.
- Wednesday: US ADP Employment Numbers.
- Friday: March Non-Farm Payroll data and unemployment rate.
However, the current market focus is on the details of the tariffs to be announced by Trump. On Wednesday (April 2), Trump will officially announce the details of the reciprocal tariffs. Until then, even if the economic data is important, the market may choose to ignore it. Trump's tariff policy is filled with uncertainty and contradictory statements; on one hand, he claims to be willing to reach agreements with other countries, while on the other hand, he emphasizes announcing reciprocal tariffs before considering other agreements, and there are reports of additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the tax rates have not yet been disclosed. This lack of transparency and wavering attitude has led the market to be extremely cautious. #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调 #金价走高
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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