Negative impact of tariffs
Recent tariff policy: US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, which has had a significant impact on global automotive stocks. After the European stock market opened, automotive stocks experienced a broad decline, and most automotive stocks in the US pre-market also dropped. Additionally, the US has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China and additional tariffs on certain imported goods.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market: The market uncertainty brought about by tariff policies has caused fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The global cryptocurrency market has encountered a new round of selling, with Bitcoin's price falling below $86,000, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin experiencing declines of over 5%. However, the market's reaction to tariff policies is gradually becoming muted, with the implementation of the tariff policy on April 2 having little effect on the market, and the market has already digested the negative impact of the tariffs, with $1,750 potentially becoming a short-term bottom.
Dynamics of the US stock market
Recent performance: In the most recent trading day, the US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the three major indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the Nasdaq Composite Index—all falling by more than 1%. Furthermore, the US stock market has shown mixed performance in the past 24 hours, influenced by various factors such as the Federal Reserve's policy announcements and economic and tariff outlooks.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market: The volatility of the US stock market has a certain impact on the cryptocurrency market. A decline in the US stock market may trigger panic selling in the cryptocurrency market, but it may also provide opportunities for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market. For example, a significant decline in the US stock market may lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, and cryptocurrencies, as an emerging safe-haven asset, may attract the attention of some investors.
Cryptocurrency market trend prediction
Short-term trend: The implementation of the tariff policy on April 2 may follow a rebound in the US stock market after a low opening, followed by a continued rise on April 4. Before breaking below $1,750, there will be a short squeeze to raise prices to the range of $1,900-2,000. The market makers may use the tariff news to entice short sellers to bet on declines, and then use the unemployment rate on April 4 to push prices up for several days, squeezing short positions to between $1,900-2,000. If it reaches between $1,900-2,000, it will be an excellent position to short.
Medium-term trend: Regardless of any rebounds, the trend of Ethereum falling below $1,500 before July cannot be changed. The next round of selling may be driven by larger negative factors. Currently, it is difficult to think of a reason for the next round of selling by market makers, but it can be determined that after a rebound to $1,900-2,000, the next round of selling will break through $1,500 in one go. At that time, there may be unfavorable news in the US stock market, such as a brief financial crisis or a stock market circuit breaker, which could again bring down the cryptocurrency market, and market makers may use this reason to push prices below $1,500.
