On Monday (March 31), the dollar index fell below 104, while gold prices continued to rise to $3,089 due to safe-haven buying. Bitcoin fell below $82,000, with bears in control. President Trump's team is considering implementing broader and higher tariffs, saying he doesn't care about rising car prices.
Trump considers broader tariffs and 'doesn't care' about rising car prices.
(Wall Street Journal) Trump stated that he 'doesn't care at all' whether foreign automakers raise prices for American consumers due to the new tariffs, with the high tariffs set to double down on a positive strategy to reshape the U.S. economy.
He stated in an interview with NBC News over the weekend that a new 25% tariff will be imposed on all imported cars and parts starting this week, making foreign cars more expensive and boosting sales of American cars.
Additionally, Trump announced April 2 as 'Liberation Day' for America, when he will implement the so-called reciprocal tariffs aimed at making U.S. tariffs equal to those imposed by trade partners, and impose tariffs on a range of industries. Other tariffs he has already implemented have begun to disrupt supply chains and raise some costs—Trump stated that this is worth it to bring more manufacturing back to America.
"I don't care at all because if foreign car prices go up, people will buy American cars," Trump said. "I want them to raise prices because if they do, people will buy cars made in America. We have a lot of them."
In the interview, Trump also denied that he had instructed the CEOs of American automakers not to raise prices during a conference call in early March, while executives indicated that raising prices in the face of tariffs was inevitable.
The well-known financial blog ZeroHedge wrote: "The Trump team is considering implementing broader and higher tariffs."
(Wall Street Journal) Last week reported that Trump warned executives that the White House would not favor this move, causing unease among some executives who feared punishment for price increases.
Trump told NBC News: "I never said that."
American dissatisfaction with the cost of living prompted Trump to take office, and his administration has been seeking to curb inflation. Automakers and parts manufacturers can absorb some of the increased costs, but not all, and they may pass some of the rising costs onto consumers. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a recent report that, on average, car prices could rise by 11% to 12% to offset the tariffs.
Democrats believe Trump's trade policy is not helping Americans. "Americans will pay more," said Democratic Senator Mark Warner from Virginia. "They hired this president to lower costs, but they think tariffs are foolish and lead to market crashes."
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro defended the government's approach, stating on 'Fox News Sunday' that the revenue generated from tariffs would help offset the costs of extending expiring tax cuts, a plan devised by congressional Republicans that would benefit the American middle class.
Navarro said: 'If overall, as they say, consumers and Americans are going to be better off, including all the jobs they get.'
U.S. PCE positive outlook fades as new round of tariff concerns intensifies.
Core PCE in the U.S. rose 0.4% in February, higher than the expected 0.3%, increasing concerns about persistent inflation in the U.S. Overall PCE growth was 0.3%, in line with expectations and not bringing any major surprises to traders.
Trump's recently announced tariff measures, including a 25% tariff on cars starting April 2, have disrupted global trade sentiment. EU officials warned that if the tariffs are implemented as planned, the EU will respond 'strongly and promptly.'
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that tariffs would have a temporary inflationary effect but would cause lasting damage to economic growth in the Eurozone.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized the U.S. strategy, stating that isolationism will ultimately harm all economies involved.
Last week, the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised to 2.4%, slightly above the initial estimate, but had little impact on the dollar.
The application data for unemployment benefits has improved, with the number of ongoing claims falling to 1.856 million, providing support for the labor market outlook.
The deadline for reciprocal tariffs on April 2 is approaching, raising concerns about a potential trade conflict with the EU.
Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín noted that while the dollar index's moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is signaling a buy, momentum indicators remain mixed. The momentum oscillators are stable, indicating a weakening trend strength.
The bearish backdrop is supported by the 20, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) as well as the 10 and 30-day exponential moving averages (EMA), all pointing downwards.
Resistance is at 104.118, 104.145, and 104.472, while immediate support is at 103.951.
Gold Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst James Hyerczyk stated that technically, there is no resistance at historical highs, so the market is expected to break through $3,086.97 next week. However, the market could overheat, making it susceptible to collapse in the short term.
The most recent support level is the minor pivot point of $2959.84. The next support area is between $2832.72 and $2811.91. The main support level remains the 52-week moving average of $2587.79.
Even with an upward trend and no resistance, the greater risk remains the buying intensity. As long as the 50-week moving average remains intact, the market will maintain a buy-on-dips mode.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph noted that Bitcoin's failure to break through the resistance line could tempt traders to sell. Bears will attempt to pull the price toward the critical $80,000 support level.
The 20-day exponential moving average is stable at $85,253, with the relative strength index (RSI) slightly below the midpoint, giving bears a slight advantage. If the $80,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to $76,606.
On the other hand, if the price rises from the current level or $80,000, it is expected to break through the resistance line. If this happens, it indicates that the correction phase has ended. Bitcoin could rebound to $95,000, then up to $100,000.
The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart is declining, and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that bears are in control. If the price falls from the current level, Bitcoin could drop to $80,000, then to $78,000.
Buyers must push and maintain the price above the 20-EMA to send a strong signal. Bitcoin could then rise to the resistance line, which is a key resistance to watch. Bullish momentum is expected to begin after breaking through $89,000.
