This week's focus is on the implementation of Trump's tariff policy! How to face the market dilemma in April?
Tomorrow marks the end of the month and quarter, so today I'll briefly share my thoughts and trading ideas.
First, let's look at the macro news:
April 2 (Wednesday)
U.S. President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs and industry-specific tariffs, imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars and a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan energy.
April 5 (Friday)
20:30 U.S. March unemployment rate and non-farm data
23:25 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gives a keynote speech.
These are all significant events. Firstly, the options expiration has driven the market down, and secondly, the announcement of the tariff news on April 2 is certainly leaning towards being bearish. Then there's the weekend data and Powell's speech, which hinges on the data; the core focus is on whether there are expectations favorable for interest rate cuts. This has caused market sentiment to become quite panicked, with large players and institutions being very cautious. The trend has been downward recently, and it's evident that everyone is worried about the upcoming tariffs on Wednesday. Leading up to Tuesday and Wednesday, the price of cryptocurrencies should remain relatively weak.
Looking at the trend, the U.S. stock market continued to decline over the weekend, and Bitcoin is currently priced at 81,800. After breaking the upward flag support, it has started to decline continuously. This time, it still failed to successfully break through the resistance of the 4-hour downward channel, which can be seen as the third failure to break the resistance. The daily trend remains in a downward channel, with a four consecutive daily bearish trend and the short positions of the main players still open. The impact of the tariffs is spreading panic, and a bottoming characteristic has not yet appeared. We are waiting for the daily line to show a spike in volume. After each decline, if the rebound is weak, it can be seen as a continuation of the decline. April is likely to be a downward month!
In terms of operations, it’s very simple. After a drop, there will always be a rebound. You just need to catch this rebound to short according to the pattern. No need to consider entry positions; this rhythm can work from any position! This time, the pullback target is first looking at around 79,500 and 76,500. If it continues to break down, then you need to pay attention to the Bitcoin price around 73,000. If support is strong, it may initiate a consolidation or upward correction. If there is a strong breakout, we might see Bitcoin starting with the number 6; we can also expect to return to the price range of 2024. Perhaps the next upward movement will be after May or June.
#美国加征关税 #加密市场回调 $BTC
