I. Key Elements and Potential Impacts of Trump’s April Tariff Policy

  1. Policy Highlights

    • Reciprocal Tariffs: Effective April 2, the Trump administration will impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all foreign imports, matching tariffs imposed by trade partners on U.S. goods. This aims to pressure countries to lower trade barriers but risks escalating global trade wars.

    • Auto Tariff Surge: A new 25% tariff on automobiles and parts threatens global supply chains, particularly impacting export-dependent economies like Germany and Japan.

  2. Economic Chain Reactions

    • Global Trade Contraction Risk: Full implementation could reduce global trade volume by $2.3 trillion. Supply chain disruptions may raise Bitcoin mining equipment production costs by 18%, increasing mining expenses.

    • Dollar Depreciation Pressure: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to a three-month low (108.2), while the euro strengthened to 1.07 amid German investment growth. Market expectations of Fed rate cuts (71 basis points in 2025) could further weaken the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

II. Key Variables in U.S. Economic Trends

  1. Heightened Recession Risks

    • Policy Contradictions: Trump’s "shock therapy" to pivot the U.S. into a manufacturing powerhouse clashes with collapsing corporate confidence, weak consumer spending, and rising unemployment. Major banks have raised recession probabilities.

    • Market Volatility: The S&P 500 faces steep corrections, hedge funds reduce leveraged positions, and the VIX "fear index" hits a seven-year high, signaling eroding faith in Trump’s protectionist policies.

  2. Dollar vs. Bitcoin Dynamics

    • Dollar Hegemony Erosion: Trump’s rumored Bitcoin reserve strategy may accelerate de-dollarization. Failure of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" (forcing trade partners to devalue currencies) could further undermine dollar dominance.

    • Bitcoin’s Divergent Safe-Haven Role: While gold surged 23%, Bitcoin fell 28%, revealing its unproven避险 status. However, whales (>1k BTC holders) accumulated 213k BTC in late March, suggesting some view it as a hedge.

III. Bitcoin Price Drivers and Critical Milestones

  1. Short-Term Volatility (April)

    • Pre-Tariff Anxiety: Bitcoin may fluctuate between 84k−84k−90k ahead of April 2. A full-blown trade war could push it below 80ksupport,whilepolicyeasingmightfuelarallytoward80ksupport,whilepolicyeasingmightfuelarallytoward93k.

    • Liquidity Support: Fed rate hold and Tether’s $1.8B USDT issuance may provide short-term stability.

  2. Mid-Term Trends (Late 2025)

    • Institutional Divergence: MicroStrategy halting BTC buys could signal a market top, while sovereign fund entries (e.g., Norway, Saudi Arabia) may mark "final exit liquidity."

    • Technical Signals: Watch the 200-day MA (~$85k). A breakdown below the 30-day MA with low volume may trigger a trend reversal.

  3. On-Chain Data & Sentiment

    • Whale Activity: $4.7B stablecoin inflows in late March indicate sidelined capital, but perpetual contract open interest dropped 37%, reflecting caution.

    • Sentiment Extremes: A prolonged Fear & Greed Index >90 and surging "FOMO" keywords on social media signal overheating risks.

IV. Risks and Strategic Recommendations

  1. Policy Risks

    • Retaliatory Tariffs: EU/China countermeasures could trigger global stagflation, raising Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional assets (currently 0.78 vs. S&P 500).

  2. Investment Strategies

    • Dynamic Scaling Out: Sell 30% at 90k,halveremainingholdingsper1090k,halveremainingholdingsper1080k.

    • Hedging: Allocate 3-5% to Bitcoin put options or inverse ETFs (e.g., BITI).

Conclusion

April’s tariff policy marks a watershed: Full implementation risks U.S. recession and Bitcoin price shocks, while policy moderation could fuel rebounds via liquidity and institutional inflows. Investors must monitor April 2 tariff enforcement, Fed pivots, and whale movements to balance risks in this policy-driven market. Long-term, Bitcoin’s escape from the "high-risk asset" label hinges on integration with traditional finance and global de-dollarization trends.