1. If Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $529 million.
On March 31, according to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $529 million.
Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $84,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $939 million.
2. The market maintains a 'panic' sentiment, with today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index at 34.
On March 31, according to Alternative data, today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 34, maintaining a 'panic' state. Last week's average was 45 (panic), and last month's average was 20 (extreme panic), indicating continued low market sentiment.
3. Tariff concerns lead to volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
The market reacts to tariff news, futures decline
On Monday morning, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by more than 0.5%. Market participants will face volatility this week. Major driving factors include tariffs announced by the US President and potential impacts on global trade dynamics.
As an investor, I am particularly focused on upcoming tariff-related news and US economic reports, as these factors may directly impact market sentiment and capital flows. If tariff policies escalate or economic data shows slowing growth + persistent inflation, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may face more severe sell-offs.
Why do tariffs affect the crypto market?
Market risk aversion: If tariff conflicts escalate, traditional markets (such as US stocks) may experience increased volatility, leading investors to first sell high-risk assets (such as Bitcoin and altcoins) and turn to dollars or government bonds for safety.
Liquidity expectations: If economic data deteriorates (such as weak employment or declining GDP), the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates. In the long term, this is beneficial for the crypto market, but short-term panic may lead to a 'sell first, buy later' behavior.
Cross-asset volatility transmission: Historical data show that major tariff announcements often drive up the VIX (volatility index), and the correlation between the crypto market and US stocks has strengthened in recent years, with Bitcoin likely to follow the S&P 500 down.
As Chris Weston mentioned, 'Risk assets are extremely sensitive to economic slowdown and inflation data,' and the crypto market, as a high-beta asset, may react even more extremely. This week, keep a close eye on US CPI, retail sales data, and tariff dynamics between China, the US, and Europe, as these could become catalysts for market movement.
Perspective from Big Pie:
Reference 4-hour level: From the chart, the candlestick broke the upward trend line (85340) on the 28th, accompanied by increased volume and did not quickly recover above the trend line; afterward, it started to decline and broke below the 83500 area. Now this position has turned into a support-resistance switch! Pay attention to the breakout situation of the 83500 area and the support situation of the 80500 area during the day.
Key Trend Analysis
Trend breakdown: The candlestick on the 28th broke the upward trend line (85,340) with increased volume and failed to quickly recover, confirming a short-term weakening.
Support-resistance switch: The 83,500 area (original support) has turned into resistance; if the rebound cannot break through, it may continue to decline. Signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, declining volume) stop loss: above 84,000 (to prevent false breakouts).
Key support below: 80,500 area; signs of stabilization (such as long lower shadows, increased volume rebound) appear.