Market overview
As of March 30, 2025, BTC/USDT on the Binance perpetual contract market is priced around 83,000 USDT. Compared to the historical peak (~109,000 USDT) set a month ago, the current price has retraced approximately 30%, triggering a debate in the market about the cycle Bitcoin is in.
This price level is still significantly higher than the peak of the last bull market (2021) at 69,000 USDT, indicating that Bitcoin experienced a strong upward trend after the halving in 2024.
Currently, daily and weekly trends show that Bitcoin is in an adjustment phase after a rapid surge: short-term technical indicators are bearish, but the long-term trend remains upward.
Daily chart technical analysis
Figure 1: BTC/USDT daily chart (from December 2024 to March 2025).
The chart shows that at the end of January this year, Bitcoin formed a double top pattern in the approximate 105-108K USDT range, after which the price fell below the downtrend line (cyan) and the 50-day moving average (blue), confirming a short-term top signal.
In mid-March, BTC experienced a significant drop, quickly probing down to around 77,000 USDT (the lower green support line), and the daily MACD indicator showed a death cross, significantly enhancing bearish momentum.
RSI has sharply fallen from overbought levels (>70) and dropped into the oversold zone (<30), indicating excessive selling pressure in the short term; the J value of the KDJ indicator has also dropped below 0, with the K and D lines entering the oversold area, suggesting a technical rebound is needed in the short term.
The TD sequence once showed a bearish signal with a count of 9 and triggered a pullback at high levels. After a consecutive drop of 9 daily candlesticks, a potential buy signal has emerged, indicating that the downward momentum might be exhausting.
After hitting a low of 77K on March 15, the daily candlestick formed a long lower shadow bullish line, indicating strong buying interest below. Subsequently, the price stabilized and rebounded, with the VR indicator (volume ratio) rising from previously significantly below 100 (bearish volume dominant) to near 100, indicating an increase in bullish volume. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the sharp drop caused the daily Bollinger Bands to open sharply, with the price briefly operating outside the lower band, indicating an oversold state.
Currently, the rebound has brought the price back to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, but the bands remain open, suggesting that volatility is still high. In the moving average system, short-term moving averages (like MA5, MA13) had previously crossed downward, while medium-term moving averages (MA33, MA55) have slowed their upward momentum and started to flatten.
The 30-day EMA has also turned downward, but the EMA200 (approximately the six-month line) remains upward and below the price, indicating that the long-term bullish pattern has not been broken. It is worth noting that the current price is hovering below the 50-day moving average (about 88,000 USDT), which has turned into short-term resistance.
If the daily price can break through the 50-day moving average and the downtrend line pressure with increased volume, it will help reverse the short-term downtrend; otherwise, a re-test of lower support may not be ruled out to seek momentum. Overall, the daily technical indicators show that Bitcoin is attempting to establish a bottom and rebound after a rapid pullback: the repair of oversold indicators and the strength of key support are the main focus in the short term.
Weekly chart technical analysis
At the weekly level, the overall trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. Since hitting the bear market low of ~15,000 USDT at the end of 2022, the weekly chart has been in an upward channel with higher highs and higher lows. The halving of block rewards in April 2024 became the new bull market starting point, driving prices to break through the previous bull market highs in the second half of 2024.
The weekly candlestick shows that after Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately 109K USDT in January 2025, a phase pullback occurred. Currently, the price continues to operate above the weekly EMA30 and the 200-day moving average (approximately equivalent to the weekly MA30-40), and the long-term upward trend line remains intact, indicating that the macro upward trend has not reversed.
However, weekly technical indicators are beginning to retreat from extreme levels. The weekly MACD has shown a shortening of the red bars at high levels, with the fast and slow lines indicating a potential death cross at high levels, reflecting a weakening of mid-term upward momentum.
The weekly RSI had previously risen to the overbought zone (>80) and has now fallen back to around 60, alleviating some of the divergence pressure from the gains; this indicator still remains above the midline of 50, showing overall bullish dominance but a cooling off.
It is worth noting that when a new high was created in January, the weekly RSI failed to synchronize with a new high, forming a certain top divergence signal. The subsequent 30% pullback caused the weekly RSI to enter a healthy range and once approached below 50, representing a typical mid-term adjustment in a bull market.
The KDJ weekly indicator has turned down after the January peak, with the K and D lines falling from the overbought zone, currently hovering around 50, suggesting that the adjustment is not yet fully complete, but downward momentum is slowing. The weekly Bollinger Bands have opened significantly after a sharp rise, and the current price has fallen from the upper band to the middle band, with the middle band (i.e., the 20-week moving average) roughly located at 75K~80K, close to the aforementioned important daily support area.
The BBI long-short line (a comprehensive indicator of multi-period moving averages) remains upward on the weekly chart and is below the current price, indicating that the long-term bullish pattern remains intact, but the price has fallen below the BBI at the daily level, suggesting a short-term bearish turn, necessitating a re-establishment above the BBI to restore strength.
In terms of patterns, the double top formation on the weekly chart is consistent with the daily chart: the two peaks in December last year and January this year are nearly flat, forming a double top prototype, with its neckline approximately at the 80K level.
In early March, the weekly chart broke below the neckline and accompanied by increased volume, confirming the establishment of this pattern.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences mid-term deep pullbacks of over 30% during bull market cycles, which has occurred in the last two cycles.
This 30% pullback from the peak aligns with historical patterns and has not disrupted the larger cycle's upward structure. If the weekly chart can regain the neckline (above 80K) and break the previous high, it is expected to continue the long bull market driven by the halving; otherwise, a continued sideways oscillation or further pullback may occur to seek more solid support (such as testing the previous cycle high of 69K). Overall, at the weekly level, Bitcoin is in an adjustment phase of a bull market: the long-term trend remains upward, but medium-term momentum is slowing, requiring some time to build momentum for recovery.
Key support and resistance levels
Combining technical analysis and key price levels, the following key support and resistance levels worth paying attention to in future trends are listed:
Support level
Around 80,000 USDT: This is the neckline area of a previous double top pattern and an important support level above the recent pullback low. Technically, it is close to the 200-day moving average, corresponding to the bulls' defense line. If this position holds, it shows that bulls still control the trend.
Around 74,000 USDT: This is the low point in the mid to late part of this month. On the daily level, this corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this rally and also aligns with horizontal support formed by connecting several previous highs. This area has repeatedly become an entry opportunity for bulls, and breaking below it would weaken the bull market structure.
Around 69,000 USDT:This is the peak of the last bull market (2021) and an important psychological level in history. After breaking through in 2024, this previous resistance transforms intolong-term support.If an extreme deep pullback occurs, strong buying support is expected at this price level.Resistance levels:
Around 88,000 USDT:Short-termimportant resistance, located in the overlapping area of the daily 50-day moving average and the current downtrend line. If bulls can conquer this area, it will improve the daily technical pattern and open up further upward space.Around 98,500 USDT: This is the medium-term resistance level, corresponding to the height of the previous double top pattern and the target measured downward from the neckline. This price level is close to where the **50-day moving average (weekly level)** is located, and it is also the upper edge of several trading clusters since last November. Breaking this level will enhance bullish market expectations.
106,000~108,000 USDT: This is the previous high resistance area. 106K is the key resistance mentioned in Investopedia; 108K is close to the highest closing price set in early January this year. This range has accumulated a large amount of previous trapped positions and profit-taking pressure, serving as the last stronghold that bulls face after breaching 100K.
109,000 USDT: This is the position of the historical highest price (intra-day high). If the subsequent trend approaches and breaks this price again, it will announce a new round of price exploration for Bitcoin, with no previous high pressure from a technical perspective, and the upper space will be driven by market sentiment.
The aforementioned support and resistance levels provide traders with reference indicators: support areas can serve as entry points for bulls or profit-taking areas for bears, while resistance areas are potential points for bulls to take profits or for bears to attempt to enter the market. In actual operations, it is necessary to judge the effectiveness of these levels in combination with real-time volume and price performance and breakout confirmation.
Analysis of macro factors' impacts
In addition to technical indicators, the Bitcoin market is also heavily influenced by the macro environment. The current macro backdrop includes several aspects:
Federal Reserve monetary policy and interest rates: Over the past two years, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes have kept rates high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Looking ahead to 2025, as global economic growth slows and inflation declines, market expectations for the Fed to halt rate hikes or even begin rate cuts are gradually warming. Especially after entering 2025, major economies (such as the EU and China) have already begun lowering interest rates, increasing the probability that the Fed will follow suit in 2025-2026.
Once the interest rate turning point is confirmed, improved liquidity will provide a more favorable environment for Bitcoin, as funds may flow back from yield-bearing assets like bonds into the crypto market.
On the other hand, if inflation rebounds or policy uncertainty (such as supply shocks due to geopolitical factors) increases, and the Fed maintains a tightening stance, it could once again suppress the prices of risk assets, including Bitcoin. Therefore, investors need to closely follow the impact of Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and other events on market sentiment.
ETF and institutional capital flow: 2024 is referred to as the year of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with several large institutions (like BlackRock) applying for or launching Bitcoin spot ETFs, leading to substantial capital inflows.
The approval of ETFs by U.S. regulatory agencies has made it easier for traditional funds to enter the crypto market. Statistics show that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF attracted record inflows of funds in 2024, and this trend is expected to strengthen further in 2025.
Looking ahead to the coming months, institutional investors continuously allocating Bitcoin through ETFs is becoming a structural trend, which will provide stable incremental buying support for the market.
Recent examples include: one of the world's largest asset management companies, BlackRock, plans to allocate 1-2% of Bitcoin in its multi-asset investment portfolio; listed companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings at lower prices.
These signs indicate that institutional participation is increasing, and long-term capital has a strong interest in Bitcoin. Additionally, the influx of ETF funds has improved market liquidity and pricing efficiency. Once the market returns to an upward trajectory, large institutional funds may accelerate their entry, thereby pushing prices higher. Conversely, if ETF approvals or regulations face uncertainties (such as delays or new restrictions), it may negatively impact market sentiment in the short term.
Market sentiment and capital flows: Market sentiment can be measured through the Fear and Greed Index, on-chain data, and the actions of large holders.
During this round of pullback, panic sentiment once intensified, and speculative bullish positions quickly cooled. However, it is worth noting that in late March, when Bitcoin oscillated around 80K,
Whale accounts (large holders) have started to accumulate at lower prices—on-chain data shows that on March 24, whales added approximately 200,000 BTC in a single day, indicating that smart money is entering at low levels. Meanwhile, an on-chain indicator reflecting selling pressure, the "seller risk ratio," dropped to a historical low of 0.086%, which typically indicates that the risk of further declines is limited and that prices are likely to rebound.
As the price rose from 77K to 87K, market sentiment also shifted from extreme fear to a neutral, slightly optimistic state.
the recovery of bullish sentiment can also be observed from the funding rates and open interest of perpetual contracts: the recent funding rate has turned positive, indicating that bullish momentum has reasserted itself. It is important to note that market sentiment is often volatile; excessive greed at high levels can lead to profit-taking, while extreme fear at low levels may present rebound opportunities. Therefore, continuously tracking market sentiment indicators is crucial for identifying turning points.
Regulatory and policy environment: The regulatory environment for the crypto market in 2025 is generally clearer than in the past. On one hand, favorable policies are emerging: for example, the new U.S. government has a relatively pro-crypto stance, with the president even proposing the establishment of a "U.S. National Cryptocurrency Reserve" (covering BTC, ETH, and other major non-stablecoin assets), and plans to hold a White House crypto summit to promote this topic.
This news has invigorated the market, with Bitcoin surging nearly 10% in a single day. Meanwhile, central banks in multiple countries are beginning to explore the possibility of using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
In terms of regulatory frameworks, the U.S. Congress is discussing advancing clearer digital asset legislation, which is expected to clarify the legal status of non-security assets like Bitcoin, thereby reducing regulatory uncertainty. In Europe, the MiCA crypto asset regulation has been implemented, providing unified standards for the industry.
Major Asian economies (such as Japan and Singapore) are also encouraging blockchain innovation while strengthening investor protection. Overall, global regulation is evolving towards embracing innovation and controlling risks. This environment helps attract compliant funds into the market and boosts market confidence.
Of course, we must also be alert to potential regulatory risks: if there is a severe crackdown on crypto trading, increased tax burdens, or other black swan policies (such as sudden bans on crypto trading in certain countries), it could lead to significant market volatility. However, as of now, regulatory trends lean more towards positive developments, especially with ETF approvals and national recognition of value, continuously reinforcing Bitcoin's status as "digital gold."
In summary, the impact of macro factors on Bitcoin presents both opportunities and risks: shifts in monetary policy, ETF and institutional fund inflows, and friendly regulatory trends provide medium to long-term upward momentum for prices, while high interest rates, economic/geopolitical uncertainties, and other factors may bring volatility in the short term. However, in the long run, with improvements in the macro environment and further integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from this, and its price performance may continue to strengthen.
Future trend predictions for 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 120 days
Based on the above technical and macro analysis, we provide the following outlook for BTC price trends over different time periods:
Short-term (within 7 days): It is expected that Bitcoin will primarily build a bottom with oscillation and moderate rebound.
After a significant drop and recent rebound, both bulls and bears have briefly formed a tug-of-war in the 80K~88K range. Considering that the daily RSI/KDJ has just exited the oversold zone, there is technical potential for further rebound, and Bitcoin is expected to rise slightly in the coming week, possibly challenging the resistance area around the daily downtrend line and the 50-day moving average at 85K-88K.
If a volume breakout occurs, the upward space will be opened, with short-term targets pointing to the 90K level; however, if there is a reversal at the current resistance, we must also be wary of the possibility of re-testing support around 80K. Overall, we lean towards a strong oscillation in the next 7 days, with a low probability of significant unilateral declines or increases; bulls and bears will compete at critical positions.
1 month (30 days): Looking ahead to the next month (until the end of April 2025), Bitcoin is expected to regain upward momentum driven by macro positive expectations and technical recovery, but there may be fluctuations along the way. If market optimism about the Fed's policy shift and continued ETF inflows grows, Bitcoin may break through previous resistance and make a push towards the 90,000-100,000 USDT range.
Once it stands above the psychological 100K level, it will boost market optimism, and bulls may accelerate pushing prices closer to previous highs. However, before approaching historical highs, significant selling pressure is expected around the 95K-98K level, where bulls may choose to temporarily catch their breath, leading to high-level oscillations.
Another possibility is that if unexpected bearish news (such as poor macro data or regulatory disturbances) emerges in April, Bitcoin could continue in a period of sideways consolidation, with the operating range converging between 75K-90K to build momentum for the next move. Overall judgment indicates a tendency for oscillating upward on a 30-day timescale: the main path is to challenge and stabilize above the 100K mark, but it cannot be ruled out that several pullbacks may occur to solidify this breakthrough.
2 months (60 days): Looking ahead to the next two months (until the end of May 2025), Bitcoin's trend largely depends on whether it can successfully break through previous highs and establish new highs. If bulls conquer the historical resistance at 109K during this period, the market will enter a price vacuum, and technically, there will be no previous high pressure, allowing prices to rapidly advance towards the 120,000 USDT range; the rate of increase may amplify during this phase, and the emergence of some FOMO sentiment cannot be ruled out.
However, a more likely scenario is that Bitcoin encounters selling pressure when it first approaches historical highs, experiencing a spike followed by a pullback or a double top prototype, and then oscillating around the 100K level to digest profit-taking, before building momentum for further upward movement. Therefore, over the next 60 days, we expect Bitcoin to most likely break through the 100K mark and fluctuate within the 95K-110K range. The optimistic upward target points to 110K-120K (corresponding to 1.1 times the previous high), while the downside risk mainly focuses on whether the 85K level can turn into medium-term support.If substantial macroeconomic benefits emerge (for example, the Fed hints at a timeline for interest rate cuts, or a large ETF suddenly receives approval), it is expected to accelerate the breakthrough of new highs; conversely, if a black swan event occurs, Bitcoin has the resilience to seek support around the 90K level. Overall, the trend is tilted towards oscillating upward within two months, with an increasing likelihood of breaking new highs.
4 months (120 days): Looking ahead to the next four months (until the end of July 2025), Bitcoin is likely to enter a more critical trend decision period in this cycle. Historically, Bitcoin often sees significant movements 12-18 months after a halving, which indicates that the second half of 2025 has the potential for accelerated increases or even bubble-like surges.
Based on current signs, we lean towards believing that Bitcoin will continue its bull market trajectory over the next 120 days, reaching new highs and continuing to rise. A conservative estimate suggests that by the end of July, Bitcoin could rise to the 120K-140K USDT range; in an optimistic scenario, if market sentiment is high and no major bearish news occurs, it could even challenge higher targets of 150K+—this prediction also aligns with some institutions predicting a range target of 180K-250K by the end of the year.
Of course, we must also consider that after several months of rebound, the market may enter an overheated state, and technical indicators may become overbought, raising the risk of a mid-term top and pullback. Therefore, within the 120-day cycle, we remain cautiously optimistic about the overall trend, believing that Bitcoin will oscillate upward to create historical new highs, but after these new highs, we must be wary of significant volatility and potential cyclical pullbacks.
Investors should develop response strategies in advance, enjoying the profits brought by the upward trend while being alert to the profit-taking market that may occur later in the summer.
Conclusion: Bullish and bearish strategy recommendations
Integrating daily and weekly technical analysis with macro factors, Bitcoin is currently in an adjustment phase of a bull market, and after a short-term consolidation, it is expected to regain upward momentum. For market participants, here are some strategic considerations for both bulls and bears:
Bullish strategy: Investors with a medium to long-term bullish outlook can view recent pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate positions at lower prices. The current price is close to an important support range (74K-80K), and Bitcoin spot or bullish positions can be built gradually, focusing on swing trading combined with long-term holding. A prudent bullish strategy is to wait for the daily price to re-establish above the 50-day moving average and key resistance (e.g., break above 90K) before increasing positions in the trend, targeting previous high levels or even higher prices. After breaking the historical high of 109K and confirming a new upward trend, bulls may consider raising profit-taking targets (e.g., 120K, 150K, etc.). At the same time, bulls should have risk control measures in place: stop-loss levels can be set below key support (e.g., if the daily close falls below 80K or the weekly close falls below 74K), and if the market moves against expectations, they should exit in a timely manner. Given that the bull market backdrop is still in place, the strategy should primarily focus on holding and adding to positions on pullbacks, but also guard against sharp fluctuations after rapid increases, using partial profit-taking methods to lock in some profits in preparation for potential pullbacks.
Bearish strategy: Traders with a short-term bearish outlook or seeking to hedge risks need to be more cautious. Given that Bitcoin's long-term trend is still upward, shorting is best done during short-term rebounds that show weakness or near significant resistance levels. For example, when prices rebound close to strong resistance (like 100K or previous high areas) and show clear signs of volume resistance and indicator divergence, bears may consider establishing short positions to capture a round of pullback profits. In terms of entry points, aggressive bears can gradually build small short positions in the 90K-100K range, with strict stop-loss settings above the previous highs; conservative bears may wait for confirmation of a market top (e.g., if the daily chart breaks below an ascending trend line or important moving averages) before following up. Given the counter-trend nature of shorting in a bull market, it is essential to control positions and risks; if the market breaks previous highs and enters an accelerated upward phase, decisive stop-loss measures should be taken. Additionally, investors holding a large amount of spot Bitcoin who are concerned about short-term pullback risks may also consider hedging through futures short positions or put options, effectively creating a defensive short strategy. When executing a bearish strategy, closely monitor changes in trading volume and news, as any new positive developments could quickly trigger a short squeeze.
In summary, the current Bitcoin market has increased divergence between bulls and bears, but whether bulls or bears, plans should be formulated based on key technical levels and objective signals, with strict discipline enforced. Bulls should act according to the trend when they are dominant, holding patiently until the trend changes; bears should enter and exit quickly when opportunities arise, taking profits and cutting losses in a timely manner. As the macro environment gradually improves and the halving effect deepens, long-term investors can continue to be optimistic about Bitcoin's upward space. However, in the short term, price fluctuations remain intense, making rational control of positions and risk crucial. We hope the analysis in this report can provide valuable references for your trading decisions. Lastly, we remind you that the market is ever-changing, so please closely monitor subsequent developments and adjust strategies in a timely manner. We wish you successful investments!
