Myles Chefalo soBR
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Bullish
BTC: Will it rebound to 90,000 or plummet to 71,000?
The day before yesterday, I mentioned that BTC would hover around 82,500 over the weekend, and it has basically been oscillating here for the past two days. The main players on Wall Street are resting this weekend. Now, I will discuss the future scenario from the perspective of chips and estimated liquidation.
From the chip distribution perspective:
The major resistance above is still at 96,000. Currently, 82,500 serves as a support level, but if it cannot hold, be prepared for a drop to the lowest level of 71,000, because from the daily chart perspective of chips, the strongest support below is indeed at 71,000.
From the estimated liquidation perspective:
Going down to 80,000 can only liquidate 300 million at high leverage, while rebounding up to 90,000 can liquidate 3.1 billion in leverage. From the perspective of estimated liquidation, the downward movement is not significant, rather, moving up to 90,000 is more favorable for the main players.
Regarding the U.S. stock market, I previously read an academic study indicating that the correlation between the Nasdaq index and BTC has reached 75%, which means the trend of the U.S. stock market is also very important for BTC. Currently, the Nasdaq has broken below the 250-day moving average. Historically, every time it breaks below the 250-day moving average, it has been an excellent long-term buying opportunity. Additionally, Tesla is also close to being halved, which historically has also been an extremely good buying opportunity, signaling a bottom. Lastly, a key factor is tariffs. It is precisely because Trump has been increasing tariffs recently that many things have become more expensive, and inflation expectations have risen, with the market currently digesting this situation. The latest update is that Trump mentioned that after the tariff policy is fully implemented on April 2, there may be some deals with other countries, essentially mutual compromises, which means that there may be some alleviation at that time, positively impacting the market.
In summary, I lean towards the idea that in the next few days, the lowest point will touch 80,000 again, followed by a violent rebound upwards to 90,000, even 96,000. Of course, a small probability of going to 71,000 cannot be ruled out, but the likelihood is very low. My long position cost is 82,700, and I have prepared ample backup. If it goes up to 90,000, I will take profit, and if it drops to 71,000, I will increase my position. I am flexible because I have no leverage. #TradersBootsCamp
The day before yesterday, I mentioned that BTC would hover around 82,500 over the weekend, and it has basically been oscillating here for the past two days. The main players on Wall Street are resting this weekend. Now, I will discuss the future scenario from the perspective of chips and estimated liquidation.
From the chip distribution perspective:
The major resistance above is still at 96,000. Currently, 82,500 serves as a support level, but if it cannot hold, be prepared for a drop to the lowest level of 71,000, because from the daily chart perspective of chips, the strongest support below is indeed at 71,000.
From the estimated liquidation perspective:
Going down to 80,000 can only liquidate 300 million at high leverage, while rebounding up to 90,000 can liquidate 3.1 billion in leverage. From the perspective of estimated liquidation, the downward movement is not significant, rather, moving up to 90,000 is more favorable for the main players.
Regarding the U.S. stock market, I previously read an academic study indicating that the correlation between the Nasdaq index and BTC has reached 75%, which means the trend of the U.S. stock market is also very important for BTC. Currently, the Nasdaq has broken below the 250-day moving average. Historically, every time it breaks below the 250-day moving average, it has been an excellent long-term buying opportunity. Additionally, Tesla is also close to being halved, which historically has also been an extremely good buying opportunity, signaling a bottom. Lastly, a key factor is tariffs. It is precisely because Trump has been increasing tariffs recently that many things have become more expensive, and inflation expectations have risen, with the market currently digesting this situation. The latest update is that Trump mentioned that after the tariff policy is fully implemented on April 2, there may be some deals with other countries, essentially mutual compromises, which means that there may be some alleviation at that time, positively impacting the market.
In summary, I lean towards the idea that in the next few days, the lowest point will touch 80,000 again, followed by a violent rebound upwards to 90,000, even 96,000. Of course, a small probability of going to 71,000 cannot be ruled out, but the likelihood is very low. My long position cost is 82,700, and I have prepared ample backup. If it goes up to 90,000, I will take profit, and if it drops to 71,000, I will increase my position. I am flexible because I have no leverage. #TradersBootsCamp
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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