1. Current Market Background and Core Logic

Macroeconomic Level: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, but concerns about Trump's tariff policy in April and economic recession remain, with the fear and greed index at 32 (fear).

Capital Flow: BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen a continuous net outflow recently (BTC weekly net outflow of $829.9 million, ETH weekly net outflow of $189.9 million), leading to significant short-term selling pressure.

Options Expiration: On March 27, options with a nominal value exceeding $14.3 billion for BTC and ETH will expire, with BTC's maximum pain point at $85,000 and ETH's maximum pain point at $2,400, which may suppress short-term prices.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

Daily Level Trend Structure

Central Oscillation: BTC has been hovering around $83,000 recently, situated at the upper edge of the daily level central range ($75,000-$85,000). If the price stabilizes at $85,000 (near the maximum pain point), it may break through the upper edge of the central structure, opening up upward space; if it falls below $80,000, one should be cautious of the risk of a pullback towards the lower edge of the central structure at $75,000.

Divergence Signal: The MACD indicator shows that the momentum of the current downtrend is weakening. If the price stabilizes near $80,000, it may form a bottom divergence, triggering a rebound.

Key: Pay attention to the top reversal pressure around $85,000 and the bottom reversal support at $80,000.

Operational Strategy

Short-term: If the price retraces near $80,000 and the MACD green bars shrink, one can take a small long position, with a stop loss at $78,000 and a target of $83,000-$85,000.

Mid-term: After breaking $85,000 and retracing without falling below, one can increase positions looking towards the $90,000-$95,000 range; if it falls below the lower edge of the central structure, wait for strong support near $65,000 before positioning.

3. Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

Divergence in Downtrend: ETH has been continuously declining since the 2024 high, currently falling below $2,000, but RSI and MACD show multi-cycle divergence, with significant technical overselling, approaching historical bottom areas.

Potential Buying Opportunity: If a bottom reversal pattern forms with a volume increase on the weekly chart, it may confirm a buy signal, targeting $2,400 (maximum pain point for options).

Central Construction: Pay attention to whether the $1800-$2200 range can form a daily level central structure, providing a basis for trend reversal.

Technical Upgrade: Pectra upgrades to optimize Layer 2 support. If ecosystem TVL breaks through $300 billion, it will drive ETH demand.

Exchange Rate Repair: After the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new low of 0.02192, if it rebounds above 0.025, it may trigger an altcoin season.

Operational Strategy

Left-side Trading: Accumulate positions in batches in the $1,800-$2,000 range, with a stop loss at $1,700 and a short-term target of $2,200-$2,400.

Right-side Confirmation: Increase positions after breaking the weekly downtrend line (at $2,300), targeting $3,000 in the medium term.

4. Comprehensive Conclusion and Risk Warning

BTC: Mainly oscillating within the central range in the short term; $85,000 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; in the medium to long term, driven by interest rate cuts and institutional capital inflows, the trend is biased towards bullish.

ETH: The probability of a rebound after overselling is high, but a reversal needs confirmation from both fundamentals and technicals, with a focus on the progress of staking ETFs and Layer 2 data.

Risk Warning:

The implementation of April's tariff policy may trigger significant market volatility.

If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, it may drag down ETH's independent market.