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”Hold 100%” say 30 BTC price indicators Bitcoin may be consolidating after repeated new all-time highs, but a giant list of classic onchain indicators shows no signs of market exhaustion at all. CoinGlass’ curated “bull market peak” selection contains 30 potential selling triggers, and aims to catch long-term BTC price tops. Currently, not a single one of its components is flashing a top signal. “According To these models $BTC will be $135K to $230K this cycle,” popular trader Cas Abbe wrote in part of an X post on the topic on June 13. Abbe, in particular, highlighted three indicators — Pi Cycle Top, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and long-term Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) —to demonstrate that the Bitcoin bull market still has plenty of room to run. “This ain’t the top,” he concluded. Cointelegraph was already tracking Pi Cycle Top and MVRV data in March, noting that prior bull markets had all ended with “overheating” visible onchain. CoinGlass currently categorizes BTC as a “hold 100%” asset based on cues taken from the top 30 indicators. Source: CoinGlass

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Why is the Altcoin Season Index Currently at 27? As of June 14, 2024, at 00:31 UTC, the Altcoin Season Index registered 27. This figure, up slightly from the previous day, firmly places the crypto market in Bitcoin Season. An index value of 27 means that only a small percentage (between 25% and 27%) of the top 100 altcoins have managed to outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days. This indicates that Bitcoin’s Bitcoin performance has been relatively stronger than most altcoins over the past three months. Several factors could contribute to this: Macroeconomic Uncertainty: In times of broader economic uncertainty, investors often flock to perceived safer assets. Within crypto, Bitcoin is typically seen as the most established and secure asset, sometimes referred to as ‘digital gold’. Institutional Flows: The approval and success of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in various regions have led to significant institutional capital flowing directly into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its price and relative performance compared to altcoins which lack similar investment vehicles. Post-Halving Dynamics: While the Bitcoin halving event often precedes broader market rallies, the immediate period after can sometimes see Bitcoin consolidating or leading before capital rotates into altcoins. Dominance Cycles: The crypto market naturally goes through cycles where Bitcoin dominance (its market cap relative to the total crypto market cap) fluctuates. High dominance often correlates with Bitcoin Season. The current index value is a clear signal that, on average, altcoins are not keeping pace with Bitcoin’s gains (or holding up as well during dips) over the recent 90-day period.

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Understanding the Altcoin Season Index The Altcoin Season Index, tracked by reputable platforms like CoinMarketCap (CMC), serves as a simple yet powerful tool for gauging market sentiment and performance trends. It provides a snapshot of how altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin over a specific period. Here’s a breakdown of what the index measures: Top 100 Coins: It focuses on the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization listed on CMC. 90-Day Performance: The index looks at the performance of these coins over the past 90 days. Relative to Bitcoin: The core comparison is how many of these top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin’s price performance during that 90-day window. Exclusions: Importantly, the index excludes stablecoins and wrapped tokens, as their price movements don’t reflect speculative market trends in the same way as volatile cryptocurrencies. The index is presented as a score ranging from 1 to 100.

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Bitcoin Sentiment Index Falls Below Neutral Threshold The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index has dropped sharply to 46.1%, falling beneath the neutral 50% mark after reaching highs above 80% just last week. This decline occurred even as Bitcoin’s price rebounded to approximately $106K, indicating a disconnect between price action and market sentiment. This divergence is largely attributed to a significant contraction in Open Interest (OI), which plummeted from $37.8 billion to $33.7 billion, reflecting a $4.1 billion capital withdrawal. Such a reduction in OI typically signals traders are closing positions to mitigate risk, resulting in thinner liquidity and an increasingly bearish market environment.

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Bitcoin’s momentum shows signs of weakening as its Advanced Sentiment Index falls below neutral amid a $4.1 billion drop in Open Interest.

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