Last night's core PCE was higher than expected, and today the market is falling not only because of the core PCE data but also due to the exaggerated inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, with a one-year inflation expectation hitting 5%. This political bias is too severe. But the market is still fearful.
In the coming April, the difficulty will rise sharply. The tariffs starting on April 2 and the GDP in the middle of the month will both give the market a headache.
Tariffs can be said to be the biggest factor currently affecting the market. There's no point in saying much about it; I just hope that regardless of how tariffs are handled, it will be a one-time deal.
Still need to ask the question that is mentioned every day: If there is a rise in April, is it a rebound or a reversal?
In my personal opinion, even if tariffs decrease and the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, as long as the U.S. monetary policy does not take a crucial step from tightening to easing, it is highly likely that every rise is just a rebound, and after the rebound, there may still be a decline.
A reversal will inevitably require a change in monetary policy, whether it's quickly entering a rate-cutting path or stopping the balance sheet reduction. Canceling SLR can also be seen as a prerequisite for starting a reversal. If the U.S. really enters a recession, it might instead become the 'last drop' of this large cycle.
Because that will force the Federal Reserve to switch its policy stance, truly entering easing, becoming the ultimate starting point for the market to transition from rebound to reversal.
Regarding market analysis:
The BTC market saw yesterday's bearish candlestick close below the support level of 85,600, currently returning to around 84,000.
According to the trend, if it breaks the support level of the phase rebound, we need to pay attention to the space range of 81,300-82,000.
The key defensive point is at the 80,000 level. If the 80,000 level breaks again, it will return to the lower dense support areas of 76-72-68. However, there's no need to look that far; for now, we should focus on the small support level in the 82,000 range.
Finally
I haven't mentioned this for a long time; this round may have a final drop. I still see a bottoming out around 70k-75k, waiting for the main upward wave. It may not be this wave of decline; there will be rebounds in between, but I am still waiting for the final drop.
Note
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