In March 2025, the movement of Solana (SOL) is gripping the nerves of the entire crypto world. From a historical high of $295 in January, it plummeted below $140, a decline of over 50%, raising doubts in the market. However, amidst the pessimism, several signals are quietly emerging—this seemingly disastrous battle may hide a potential counterattack ready to unfold. Here are four core logic points suggesting that the SOL price may break the $180 resistance and regain upward momentum.
One, policy tailwind: Trump's 'crypto hegemony' and SOL's hidden chips.
Although users mentioned that World Liberty Financial (WLF) does not directly hold SOL, the Trump administration's strategic shift regarding the crypto industry is reshaping market expectations. On March 7, Trump announced the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve, the termination of 'Operation Choke Point 2.0', and the promotion of stablecoin legislation. This policy dividend spills over to the entire crypto market, especially benefiting SOL, which is included in the 'strategic reserve list'.
What’s more noteworthy is the deep binding of Trump’s team with crypto capital. For instance, David Sacks, the White House cryptocurrency affairs director, is a partner at Multicoin Capital, an investor in Solana, and SOL has been included in the assessment range of the U.S. Treasury reserves. This collusion of politics and capital could directly stimulate demand through policy inclinations (such as accelerating the approval of SOL's spot ETF).
Key driver: If VanEck's optimistic expectation for SOL's spot ETF (approved by the end of 2025) comes true, institutional funds entering the market will completely reverse the supply-demand dynamics. Currently, SOL's market cap is only $81 billion, just 1/10 of Bitcoin, highlighting significant liquidity scarcity.
Two, technical anomalies: Golden cross and the 'bull-bear strangulation' of whale dark pools.
From a technical indicator perspective, SOL is experiencing a critical turning point:
Golden cross signal: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are about to form a bullish crossover. Historical data shows that after such signals, SOL's average increase reaches 25%.
Breakthrough of the descending wedge: Weekly-level breakout from a long-term resistance line, targeting the $190-198 range, resonating with the Fibonacci retracement levels.
However, the market game is exceptionally fierce. On-chain data shows that in the past week, the amount held by SOL whales (holding over 100,000 coins) has surged by 30%, but the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, with short positions accounting for 62%. This divergence of 'spot accumulation + futures shorting' suggests that main funds are harvesting leveraged retail investors by creating volatility.
Potential script: If the price breaks through $180 and stabilizes, the short squeeze volume will exceed $500 million, triggering a chain reaction and pushing SOL to challenge the $200 mark.
Three, ecological reconstruction: From MEV hegemony to 'Value Capture 2.0'.
The MEV bot issue pointed out by users (95% of fees contributed by 1.3% of users) is indeed SOL's 'Achilles' heel', but changes are brewing within the ecosystem:
Protocol upgrade: The Solana Foundation plans to launch the 'Anti-MEV Protocol' in April, aiming to reduce bot arbitrage space by utilizing a crypto transaction memory pool and fair ordering mechanisms, attracting real users back.
DeFi 2.0 experiment: Liquid staking protocols like Jito are launching 'yield tiering' products, distributing MEV profits to ordinary stakers, attempting to transform the 'vampire mechanism' into ecological dividends.
Although DEX trading volume has dropped by 73% in the short term, the on-chain NFT minting volume has grown by 40%, indicating that developers are shifting from speculation to building practical scenarios. If narratives such as AI infrastructure and RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) materialize, SOL could break free from its 'Meme dependency'.
Four, market cycle law: Leveraged clearing and reflexive rebounds.
The current weakness of SOL essentially reflects the process of deleveraging:
Clearing the aftermath: The Memecoin crash in February led to over $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated, and the market needs time to digest the excess liquidity.
Emotional peak: The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 18 (extreme fear), RSI has entered the oversold zone, and historically similar phases have seen an average rebound of 58% for SOL.
More subtly, the 'dollar weakening expectation' triggered by Trump’s policies is reshaping asset allocation logic. As a hedge against fiat currency inflation, SOL's correlation with Bitcoin has risen from 0.7 to 0.9, potentially benefiting from a rotation of safe-haven funds.
$180 may be the litmus test for the 'new consensus'.
The battle for SOL's $180 is not only a technical tug-of-war but also a reflection of the changing power dynamics in the crypto world. If the breakout is successful, it will validate the new narrative of 'policy dividends + ecological transformation'; if it fails, it may slide into the abyss of $100.
For investors, it is crucial to be wary of two extremes at this moment: blindly following the FOMO sentiment of the 'Trump concept' or being overly pessimistic about on-chain transformations. As Soros said, 'The market is always wrong, but reflexivity will turn it into reality.' The fate of SOL may depend on whether the market can reconstruct consensus amidst chaos.
Hello everyone! I am Yash, having navigated the market for many years, deeply understanding the opportunities and pitfalls within it. After taking many detours, I hope to provide some help for everyone’s understanding and approach to cryptocurrency trading.
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