$BTC scende? Is the market collapsing? Let's analyze BTC

Current Price and Performance

- Current value: $83,936.02 (USDC)

- 24h Change: -3.27%

- Daily range: $83,533.15 (min) / $86,927.84 (max)

- Trading volume: 4,413 BTC ($374.4M USDC), indicating medium-high liquidity

Critical Technical Indicators

- Moving Averages:

- MA7 at $86,212 (immediate resistance)

- MA25 at $84,824 (first level to surpass)

- MA99 at $93,857 (key long-term resistance)

- RSI: Not specified but the 3% drop on sustained volume suggests possible oversold

- Supports: $83,533 (today's min) and $80,522 (next major support)

Market Dynamics

- Clearly bearish trend:

- Negative performance across all timeframes (today -0.59%, 90 days -11.78%)

- Only the six-month horizon remains positive (+27.79%)

- "Lower highs" structure:

- Decreasing highs (MA99 > MA25 > MA7 > current price)

- Volume MA(5) at 3,144 BTC vs MA(10) at 3,125 BTC: slight increase in selling pressure

Order Book and Liquidity

- Demand/supply imbalance:

- 66.56% sell orders vs 33.44% buy orders

- Minimum bid-ask spread: $83,937.99 - $83,938.00

- Key levels:

- Resistance: $85,631 (aligned with MA25)

- Psychological support: $83,500

Operational Scenario

1) Base Case (60% prob):

- Consolidation between $83,500-$84,800

- Wait for MA25 test for trend confirmation

2) Bear Case (30%):

- Breakdown at $83,500 → target $80,522

- Volume above 5k BTC would be confirmation

3) Bull Case (10%):

- Bounce above MA7 ($86,212) with volume >4k BTC

- Short squeeze towards $87,000

Immediate Monitoring

- Reaction at $83,500: bounce or breakdown?

- MA7/MA25 convergence: potential "death cross"

- SEC/ETF updates: possible catalysts

Short-Term Advice

- For holders: wait for support tests before buying

- For traders: consider short only below $83,500 with stop-loss at $84,900

- Watch for:

- RSI/price divergences

- Sudden changes in the order book

The chart shows a clearly downtrending market, but with possible signs of oversold.