March 29$ETH Morning trend review: At noon yesterday at 12:00, Ethereum experienced its first dump, dropping from 2000 to 1900, marking the first dump. I also noticed that in the three hours prior to this,$ETH the price fluctuated between 2015 and 1995, with Ethereum last dropping below 1990 around midnight this morning. This can be seen as following the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market, with no significant bullish or bearish points. Around 13:00 Beijing time, the first major dump occurred, with four main outflow records monitored:
12:40:10 Outflow of 3,652,264.0667 USDT - Price 1976.65
12:42:03 Outflow of 1,784,417.7399 USDT - Price 1937.09
12:42:03 Outflow of 2,209,898.2408 USDT - Price 1937.09
12:42:03 Outflow of 1,928,120.7077 USDT - Price 1937.09
$ETH After the first dump, the market sentiment index rose from 40 to 45, classified as panic, and the market entered a consolidation state lasting 6 hours, with the price oscillating between 1925 and 1905.
During the second dump, around 7 PM, the first downtrend observed on-chain occurred at 7:05 when the price fell back to 1905, exhibiting a downtrend, hitting around 1860, followed by a rebound to 1900.
After the dump, the price found support, oscillating multiple times between 1900-1860, bottoming at 1860. Early this morning, it tested the bottom at 1860 multiple times and rebounded, correcting to around 1910 by 8 AM, breaking the upward trend and probing downward.
I believe it will still oscillate several times between 1900-1880 this morning, with no significant changes. If large leveraged contracts can reduce positions, it would be wise to minimize holding time to avoid losses.
Technical Analysis Perspective
• Trend Judgment: From the current technical pattern, after experiencing two dumps, ETH's price is overall in a relatively weak range. Multiple dips to 1860 and rebounds to around 1910 followed by another dip indicate a strong contest between bulls and bears in the 1900-1880 range. If the situation as you mentioned continues, it may oscillate several times within this range while waiting for the market to choose a direction. For instance, by observing technical indicators like MACD and KDJ, it can be found that there are no clear reversal signals at present, which also supports the judgment of short-term oscillation.
• Support and Resistance Levels: Around 1860, a short-term support level seems to have formed, with price rebounding whenever it dips to this level; while 1910 has become a short-term resistance level, making it difficult for the price to stabilize after breaking upward. This conversion relationship between support and resistance makes it hard for the price to quickly break out of this range without significant external factors.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Perspective
• Market Sentiment Impact: The market sentiment index rising from 40 to 45, classified as panic, indicates that investors' confidence in the market has been significantly impacted. Under such panic sentiment, investors' trading decisions may become more cautious, leading to decreased market activity and relatively smaller price fluctuations, making it easier to form a range-bound trend.
• Main Fund Direction: The monitored behavior of major dumps indicates signs of outflow of main funds. This may exert some pressure on the market, causing a lack of momentum for price increases. However, after the dump, the market did not experience a significant decline, but oscillated within a certain range, which may imply that other funds are absorbing at lower levels, or that the main funds have not completely exited after washing out and are still waiting for the right moment.
External Factors Impact Perspective
• U.S. Stock Market Correlation: You believe ETH's fluctuations follow the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market, which indicates a certain correlation between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets. If the U.S. stock market's subsequent trend is unstable or experiences significant volatility, it may trigger another response from the ETH market, leading its price to further oscillate or even break out of the range.
• Macroeconomic Environment: The current macroeconomic situation, regulatory policies, and other factors may also impact ETH prices. For instance, changes in regulatory policies regarding cryptocurrencies in various countries and the state of the global economy may alter investors' expectations, thereby affecting ETH's price trend.
Overall, the market may maintain a range fluctuation pattern between 1900 and 1880 in the short term, but investors still need to closely monitor market dynamics, including changes in technical indicators, the direction of main funds, and the influence of external factors, to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
Having traversed the market for many years, I am well aware of the opportunities and traps within. If your investments are not going well and you feel regretful about your losses, leave a '999' in the comments. I am Xiao He, someone who aims to leave a name in the crypto world.