Detailed analysis of the TON market, don't let the short-term surge of TON cloud your judgment, Qi Ming will analyze the TON market for you!!!
The TON four-hour level continues to oscillate within the range of $3.92-$4.05, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to a six-month extreme. The MACD is floating above the zero line with a golden cross, and trading volume has shrunk to 58% of the previous day, indicating that the market has reached a critical point for a potential shift. The main force has buried 3.2 million liquidation orders above $4.05, and there are 2.1 million stop-loss orders at the $3.92 defense line, creating a situation of squeeze between long and short positions. On-chain data showed unusual activity early in the morning—an institutional wallet transferred 800,000 TON to exchanges. Combined with the overbought signal from the Williams indicator and divergence in price and volume, the market is brewing extreme volatility.
The Telegram ecosystem today officially announced that Sequoia Capital and other institutions have invested $400 million to increase their holdings in TON. The deep integration of payment functions will directly reach 1 billion monthly active users, and the ecological empowerment value far exceeds market expectations. However, macro risks are still brewing. If the PCE data released at 20:30 Eastern Time exceeds expectations, it may trigger a spike to the strong support area of $3.8. We need to be cautious of the impact of capital flight from the BSC ecosystem on Binance-related tokens, as the decline of BNB this week has already led some investors to turn to TON for hedging.
The current price of $4.02 is at a balance point between long and short positions. It is recommended that spot investors hold 50% of their base position and observe, while contract strategies can operate along the range of $3.95-$4.05 with high short and low long positions, strictly setting stop-loss at $3.85 and breakout buy orders at $4.10. The main force has recently shown a clear tendency to clean up stop-loss orders within a range of 2.8%. A break below $3.92 may trigger panic selling pressure testing the iron bottom at $3.8, while a volume breakout above $4.05 will open up space to the previous high of $4.3.
Tonight's key observation: the explosive direction of volume at the moment of PCE data release, the speed of capital inflow into the Telegram ecosystem, and the changes in the distribution of large liquidation orders on exchanges. After the price breaks out of the range, follow the trend and avoid counter-trend positions.
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