$1000SATS 📌 Current Key Data:
- **The long-short position ratio is close to 1:1** (intense competition, market makers may layout both sides)
- **Retail investors are still bullish (70%)**, but position sizes are balanced (market makers may be hiding short positions)
- **The market (BTC) stabilizes**, and market sentiment slightly improves
### **🔮 Possible Strategies of Market Makers**
#### **1️⃣ Trend Pulling and Short Selling (50% probability)**
**✅ Conditions:**
- BTC continues to rebound, market sentiment warms up
- Funding rates are still negative or neutral (to avoid being suppressed by arbitrage orders)
- On-chain shows that the market maker is accumulating at low prices
**📈 Trend:**
- Rapidly rising 10-20%, triggering short stop-losses
- Creating the illusion of a 'trend reversal' to attract following funds
**⚠️ Risks:**
- If the following orders are insufficient, they may sell off
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#### **2️⃣ False Breakout Followed by Crash (40% probability)**
**🎭 Market Maker Tactics:**
1. First, a slight rebound (5-10%) to make the bulls think a bottom has formed
2. Suddenly withdraw buy orders, crashing below new lows, wiping out bottom-fishing bulls
3. Simultaneously profit from short positions, completing a double kill of both bulls and bears
**🔍 Observation Signals:**
- During the rebound, **trading volume is sluggish** (no real buy orders)
- Large orders **suddenly disappear**
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#### **3️⃣ Continue Ranging and Washing Out (10% probability)**
**🔄 Trend:**
- Maintaining low-level oscillation to wear down retail patience
- Waiting for BTC to choose a direction before acting
**📉 Applicable Scenarios:**
- If BTC ranges, the market maker may temporarily observe
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### **💡 Operation Suggestions**
#### **✔️ Spot Investors**
- **If volume breaks through previous low resistance levels**, can lightly try going long (set stop-loss 5% below the new low)
- **If the rebound lacks volume**, reduce positions at highs to prevent false breakouts
#### **❌ Contract Investors**
- **Avoid high leverage**, market makers may suddenly change the trend
- If going long, strictly set stop-loss (3-5%) to prevent flash crashes
#### **🔎 Key Monitoring Indicators**
1. **BTC Trend**: If BTC breaks $63K, SATS may follow
2. **Funding Rate**: If it turns positive too high, be wary of market maker's counterattack
3. **On-chain Data**: Are large holders accumulating at low prices?
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### **📌 Conclusion**
- **Short-term (1-3 days)**: Market makers may test market reaction; if following orders are strong, they will pull up, otherwise continue to wash out the market.
- **Mid-term (1 week)**: Depends on whether BTC continues to rebound; if BTC strengthens, SATS may follow.
- **Maximum Risk**: Market makers may 'fake a rise and actually crash', be wary of sudden trend changes!
**🚨 Advice: Stay cautious and wait for clearer signals!**
Follow me. Keep an eye on SATS trends