🇺🇸 The U.S. PCE report this Friday could trigger a Bitcoin rally
All eyes are on the PCE index, the barometer of inflation in the United States. Expected on March 28, this figure could trigger a major shift in risk asset markets. Bitcoin, in the spotlight, could be the first beneficiary or the first victim. In a climate of geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainties, this release presents a decisive test to gauge speculative appetite and the strength of bullish momentum in cryptocurrencies.
A U.S. statistic under global watch
As March 28 approaches, the cryptocurrency market holds its breath. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the PCE index that day, a decisive indicator of U.S. inflation. Several signals indicate that this figure could strongly influence the price of bitcoin. The PCE report measures the prices of goods and services paid for by U.S. households and serves as an important benchmark for the Fed's monetary policy.
The market is observing a buildup of call options beyond $100,000 for BTC, but QCP estimates that this position alone should not trigger "greater volatility."
A decrease in inflation in this report would be seen as a favorable signal for risk assets and would reinforce interest in bitcoin.
In this context, analysts are paying attention to every index to detect a possible change in direction. A figure below expectations would reinforce the thesis of monetary easing, which could rekindle risk appetite.
Conversely, a bullish surprise would rekindle fears of a more aggressive Fed, which would limit immediate prospects for crypto assets.
April, a historic month and bullish prospects for bitcoin
Other factors fuel optimism in the market. Historically, April has proven particularly favorable for bitcoin, with an average monthly return of 12.9% according to CoinGlass data.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, presents an ambitious projection: "Bitcoin is more likely to reach a new all-time high of $110,000 before returning to $76,500."
This scenario is based on a confluence of favorable technical and fundamental indicators. The analysis by Juan Pellicer, lead researcher at IntoTheBlock, confirms this climate of confidence. He observes a recovery in institutional commitment, associated with the easing of U.S. monetary policy.
"The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary tightening could also favor a short-term price increase," he indicates. This context, combined with growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, fuels the most optimistic projections.
The release of the PCE could thus constitute the turning point between consolidation and a new rally. However, this outlook remains conditioned by an still uncertain economic environment. The coming weeks should provide a clearer reading of the intentions of major central banks and of bitcoin's ability to extend its upward trajectory or mark a strategic pause.
