1. Price Trend Review* Current Price: Around $138 (down about 4.3% from yesterday), within the support range of $135.8-$141.4.
*Intraday Volatility**: Lowest dip to $135.8 (close to the low point on March 27), highest rebound to $141.4 (second support level on the 4-hour chart).
2. In-depth Technical Analysis
#### 1. Trend and Momentum* Short-term Structure: The 4-hour chart has formed a 'descending wedge,' if it holds above the support of $138, it may trigger a technical rebound to $144.5 (previous high resistance).
*Key Indicators**:
*MACD**: Sticking below the zero line, green bars shrinking, bearish momentum weakening;
*RSI**: 42 (close to oversold zone), there is a short-term need for correction;
*Support/Resistance**:
*Strong Support**: $135.8 (the low point on March 27, repeatedly validated without breaking);
*Key Resistance**: $141.4 (the second support turning into resistance on the 4-hour level).
2. Weekly and Monthly Signals* Weekly Level: Break below the 200-week moving average ($152), if unable to recover, it may confirm a medium-term weakening;
*Monthly Level**: Q1 accumulated a 43% decline, marking the worst start in history, and caution is advised regarding the inertia of technical selling.
3. Market Driving Factors
1. Policy and Macroeconomics* Regulatory Disturbance: The U.S. SEC plans to tighten regulation on privacy coins, which may suppress the popularity of altcoins in the short term, with funds possibly flowing back to BTC;
*Federal Reserve Policy**: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, but the dollar index remains strong, with limited liquidity improvement. 2. Funding and On-chain Data* Exchange Data: SOL's net outflow has reached an 18-month high, large holders have increased their positions, but market selling pressure has not decreased;
*Ecosystem Dynamics**: Layer-2** TVL continues to rise, mainnet demand shrinks, and SOL inflation rate rises back to 0%.**
3. Technical Upgrade Expectations* Firedancer Upgrade: The client upgrade plan led by Jump** Trading is set to be fully deployed in 2025, which may enhance network performance and attract institutional funds;**
*ETF Approval**: Institutions like VanEck and Bitwise have submitted spot ETF applications, and if approved, it may drive a liquidity explosion.
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4. Operational Strategy Suggestions
1. Short-term Trading* Long Position Strategy: Accumulate positions in batches between $135.8-$136.6, stop loss at $132, target at $144.5;
*Short Position Strategy**: Attempt short positions near $141.4, stop loss at $143, target at $132-$130.
2. Medium to Long-term Layout* Accumulate on Dips: If it pulls back to the range of $120-$125 (2024 low), it can be bought in batches, target $150;
*Position Suggestions**: Maintain core positions, pay attention to Firedancer launch and ETF approval progress.
5. Risk Warning* High Volatility Risk: SOL options implied volatility has risen to 48%, extreme market conditions may trigger programmatic trading sell-offs;
*Liquidity Trap**: Total market capitalization of the crypto market has dropped to $2.1 trillion, liquidity exhaustion in altcoins may drag down SOL;
*Technical Pressure**: Weekly level breaks below the bear market trend line ($152), caution is advised regarding a continuation of the breakdown.
