1. Price Trend Review
Yesterday's Market (March 26)
- Opening Price: $2066.10 (high opening driven by US stock rebound)
- Intraday Volatility: Dropped to a low of $2005 (affected by the decline in US stocks), ultimately closing down 3.4% at $2010.
- Core Drivers: Volatility in the US stock market triggers risk aversion in the crypto market, ETH follows BTC in a synchronized pullback.
Today's Market (March 27)
- Current Price: Around $2010 (as of 20:00 UTC+8)
- Volume Changes: Trading volume shrinks, price rises accompanied by insufficient momentum, be alert for pullback risks.
2. In-depth Analysis of Technical Aspects
1. Trends and Momentum
- Short-term Structure: 4-hour chart forming a 'descending triangle', if it breaks below $1980 support will open up downward space.
- Key Indicators:
- MACD: Death cross below zero axis, green bars expanding, bearish momentum increasing;
- RSI: 35-40 weak zone, no oversold signals observed, may continue to oscillate in the short term;
- Support/Resistance:
- Strong Support: $1980 (low on March 27, repeatedly validated without breaking);
- Key Resistance: $2070-$2100 (congested area, multiple pressures).
2. Weekly and Monthly Signals
- Weekly Level: Broke below the 200-week moving average ($2100), if unable to recover may confirm a medium-term weakening;
- Monthly Level: Q1 cumulative decline of 43%, creating the worst historical start, need to be cautious of technical selling inertia.
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3. Market Driving Factors
1. Policies and Macroeconomics
- Regulatory Disturbances: US SEC plans to tighten privacy coin regulations, temporarily suppressing altcoin popularity, funds may flow back to BTC;
- Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for interest rate cuts rise but the US dollar index remains strong, limited liquidity improvement.
2. Funds and On-chain Data
- Exchange Data: ETH net outflow hits an 18-month high, large holders increase holdings but market selling pressure remains;
- Ecological Dynamics: Layer-2 TVL continues to rise, mainnet demand shrinks, ETH inflation rate rises to 0%.
#### 3. Market Sentiment
- Bull-Bear Game: Number of holding addresses increases but short-term traders tend to take profits, sentiment leans towards caution.
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4. Operational Strategy Recommendations
1. Short-term Trading
- Short Position Strategy: Gradual positions at $2070-$2100, stop loss at $2150, target $1950-$1980;
- Long Position Strategy: Stabilizing at $1950-$1980, can lightly test long positions, stop loss at $1920, target $2050.
2. Medium to Long-term Layout
- Buy on Dips: If it retraces to the $1850-$1900 range (previous low before November 2023), can buy in batches, target $2200;
- Holding Suggestions: Maintain core positions, focus on EIP-4844 upgrade and the long-term logic of Layer-2 ecosystem feedback.
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5. Risk Warning
- High Volatility Risk: ETH options implied volatility rises to 42%, extreme conditions may trigger programmatic trading sell-offs;
- Liquidity Trap: Total market cap of the crypto market drops to $2.1 trillion, altcoin liquidity drying up may drag down ETH;
- Technical Pressure: Broke below bear market trendline at weekly level ($2100), need to be alert for continuation of breakdown.
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Take Immediate Action
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Risk Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, decisions should be made cautiously.
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#ETH Market #Cryptocurrency #SCDO_AI #Crypto Investment Strategy
Release Time: March 27, 2025, 20:00 (UTC+8)#SCDO
