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BTC Market Analysis (March 26, 2025)

【Real-Time Market】

Current Price: $87,935 (Perpetual Contract), 24-hour slight increase of 0.34%, intraday fluctuation over $1,200.

Support Level: $86,000 (4-hour midline), $84,500 (Daily 38.2% retracement).

Resistance Level: $88,500 (Previous High Pressure), $90,000 (Psychological Barrier).

Volume: Trading volume decreased by 15% in the past 6 hours, upward momentum is insufficient, caution is advised for correction risks.

【Technical Analysis】

Daily MACD red bars are shortening, RSI reached 76, 1-hour RSI close to 72, indicating overbought risks.

The 4-hour chart forms an "Ascending Triangle"; if it breaks above $88,500, upward opportunity exists; otherwise, it may retrace to support.

Weekly breaks above the 200-day moving average ($85,046), target $93,245; if the monthly stabilizes at $85,000, a new rising cycle may begin.

【Market Drivers】

Policy: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are strengthening, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to the 102 level; SEC regulatory dynamics may promote fund inflow into BTC.

Funds: Asian ETFs saw a net inflow of $420 million in a single day, active whale addresses indicate a willingness to hold long-term positions.

Sentiment: Addresses holding coins continue to grow, but short-term traders tend to take profits, sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

【Operational Strategy】

Short-Term: It is recommended to accumulate positions in batches at $85,000-$85,500, with a stop loss at $84,800, and a target of $87,858; consider shorting near $87,858.

Medium to Long-Term: Accumulate on dips (in the $81,200-$83,000 range), target above $90,000, retain core positions.

【Risk Warning】

BTC options implied volatility has risen to 45%, market liquidity risk and potential policy black swan effects should be noted, please invest cautiously.

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Release Time: March 26, 2025, 20:00 (UTC+8)