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BTC Market Analysis (March 26, 2025)

【Real-time Market】

Current Price: $87,935 (Perpetual Contract), 24-hour slight increase of 0.34%, daily fluctuation over $1,200.

Support Level: $86,000 (4-hour midline), $84,500 (Daily 38.2% retracement).

Resistance Level: $88,500 (Previous high pressure), $90,000 (Psychological barrier).

Volume: Trading volume decreased by 15% in the past 6 hours, upward momentum is insufficient, caution against pullback risk.

【Technical Analysis】

Daily MACD red bars shorten, RSI reaches 76, 1-hour RSI close to 72, indicating overbought risk.

4-hour chart forms an “Ascending Triangle”, if it breaks through $88,500, there will be upward opportunities; otherwise, it may retest support.

Weekly breaks above the 200-day moving average ($85,046), target $93,245; if the monthly stays above $85,000, a new rising cycle may start.

【Market Drivers】

Policy: Expectations for Fed rate cuts strengthen, US dollar index drops to 102; SEC regulatory dynamics may promote fund inflow into BTC.

Funds: Asian ETF saw a net inflow of $420 million in a single day, active whale addresses indicate a willingness for long-term holding.

Sentiment: The number of holding addresses continues to grow, but short-term traders tend to take profits, sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

【Operational Strategy】

Short-term: It is recommended to build positions in batches between $85,000-$85,500, stop loss at $84,800, target $87,858; can try short near $87,858.

Medium to Long-term: Accumulate on dips (between $81,200-$83,000), target above $90,000, maintain core positions.

【Risk Warning】

BTC options implied volatility rises to 45%, market liquidity risk and policy black swan effects should be noted, invest cautiously.

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Release Time: March 26, 2025, 20:00 (UTC+8)