As the April 2 deadline for Trump's so-called tariffs approaches, the market is closely watching how related policies will affect market conditions. On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index down 2.2% during the day, the S&P 500 index down 1.3%, and the Dow Jones index down 0.45%. The average annualized return of the S&P 500 index in the second quarter is 19.6%, with April’s performance second only to December. BTC is highly correlated with U.S. stock indices, showing similar performance.
Back to the point:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated: The SEC's cryptocurrency working group will hold four new roundtable discussions from April to June 2025, covering topics such as crypto trading, custody, asset tokenization, and DeFi. Commissioner Hester Peirce referred to this as a 'spring sprint towards crypto clarity,' marking a new direction for the SEC toward cooperation and a clear regulatory framework. The meetings will be open to the public and streamed online. FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that the U.S. Senate plans to hold a final vote on Thursday to repeal the IRS's decentralized finance (DeFi) broker rules. This vote will be the last step before the resolution is sent to Trump for signing, with the signing potentially occurring as early as Friday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is following the approach of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency by removing 'reputational risk' from its regulatory standards. Previously, this factor was used to justify the withdrawal of banking services from legitimate businesses, including cryptocurrencies. On March 25, BlackRock launched its BTC ETF in the European market, the iShares Bitcoin ETP (IB1T GY and IB1T FP). Santiment stated that during the rebound of BTC from $77,500 to about $88,350, the number of addresses holding 100 to 10,000 BTC increased from 16,600 to 17,889. As usual, with whales starting to accumulate again, the market began to improve. CZ stated: Technical trends are easier to see than prices; with a little understanding and patience, there are many opportunities for long-term growth and wealth.
Financial Times: Fidelity plans to launch a stablecoin by the end of May to aid its bond tokenization business expansion and compete directly with traditional asset management rivals BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. On March 25, MtGox sent 893.41 BTC to Kraken, one of the five platforms distributing compensation payments from MtGox. QCP states that JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists are telling their clients that the recent wave of U.S. stock declines is likely over, with improving market sentiment and historic seasonal support as the reasons. The second quarter, especially April, has traditionally been one of the best periods for risk assets, only second to the holiday-heavy December rise. The S&P 500 index achieved an average annualized return of 19.6% in the second quarter, and BTC also recorded the second-best median performance during this period, also just behind the fourth quarter. Trump stated twice on Monday that trade partners might receive tariff exemptions or reductions, which helped ease market tensions. CoinDesk reports: Dominic Rizzo, portfolio manager at global investment giant T. Rowe Price, which manages over $1 trillion, told over 2,000 asset management professionals at the 'Trading Platform Summit': The current price of BTC is close to the mining cost (average cost around $84,770), and compliance and institutionalization remain the core narrative of this bull market. Traditional asset management companies are gradually strengthening their strategic emphasis on crypto assets and should allocate BTC from a commodity-like perspective.
On March 25, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $26.8 million, marking eight consecutive days of net inflows; U.S. ETH spot ETFs experienced an outflow of $3.3 million. U.S. game retailer GameStop updated its investment policy to include BTC in its treasury reserve assets. On March 26, GameStop's stock price rose 15% during the day. There have been 26 states in the U.S. proposing BTC reserve bills, with many states suggesting allocating 10% of state funds to crypto assets. Wisconsin became the first state to purchase a BTC ETF, holding $588 million by the fourth quarter of 2024. Analyst Augustine Fan stated that the market direction will become clearer with the key policy node on April 2, and that a soft market rebound is expected to continue until the end of the month, with the next important catalyst being Trump's tariff statement on April 2. Macro policy uncertainty may again become a catalyst to disrupt the balance in the crypto market. Bitunix analysts noted that as Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 approaches, market sentiment has changed significantly. If the final policy is harsher than market expectations, U.S. stocks and the crypto market may experience a sharp short-term decline. If the policy is milder than expected, cryptocurrencies may see capital inflow, and investors should pay attention to the market. On March 25, Trump indicated that he might grant tariff exemptions to many countries.
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision last week, Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to cut rates, and concerns about Trump's trade agenda are deepening. Trump is eager for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure. MarketWatcher reported that the market believes the Fed is expected to shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), which would inject liquidity into financial markets. The previous QE easing cycle drove BTC up 1,000% from March 2020 to November 2021. Despite the optimistic market sentiment, some analysts warn that quantitative tightening is still ongoing, just at a slower pace, with QT scaling down from $60 billion to $40 billion per month. On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index down 2.2% during the day, the S&P 500 index down 1.3%, and the Dow Jones index down 0.45%; BTC was down 2%, and ETH was down 3.5%. Goldman Sachs cited Federal Reserve data indicating that by the end of 2024, foreign capital will hold $16.5 trillion worth of U.S. stocks, accounting for 18%. It is expected that foreign capital will purchase $300 billion worth of U.S. stocks this year, slightly lower than the $304 billion expected in 2024, which will drive long-term demand. BTC is about 70% correlated with U.S. stocks, and Standard Chartered believes BTC can be seen as a large tech stock and thus benefit from it. Last week, following dovish comments from Powell of the Fed, the balance sheet reduction is expected to slow down starting in April, with expectations raised to three times, which is a positive sign, and the crypto market rebounded; Trump's tariff policy on April 2 is considered negative news, and the market is tense about this. The crypto market and U.S. stock indices historically performed in April only second to December, and after the decline, there is hope to continue this warming process.