$BTC Double Top scenario at around 110k then Bearmarket or 200k by Q3-Q4, whats more likely?

We had a lot of discussions about the recent Bullrun where we tried to compare previous runs with the actual run.

We did run a few sims with diffrent tools and there are 2 Scenarios in play wich have the highest possibel Outcome.

Scenario1 : we need a Correction down to 64k -73k to retest the Area of the Old ATH from 2021 to Collect new Money/ liquidity and then Create a New Bullrun Top in Q3-Q4 at around 200k(or a bit higher).

Scenario2: we hovering around 80k-90k slowly getting up to 100k-115k Area and Create a double Top, which results in a Bearmarket. People with a few years experince in the Matket can clearly feel that $BTC has no Power at the Moment because we dont have new liquidity, we have No new Retail Investors. Bullrun is over by Q2-Q3.

My personal Opinion is that Cycles are Changing and we create a double Top and go straight into Bearmarket, are you smarter? then go All in?? Whats youre take?