#SCDO #SCDO引领反洗钱的新潮流

🔵 Real-time Market Overview

Current Price: BTC Spot Price $87,935 (Perpetual Contract), up 0.34% in the last 24 hours, with intraday fluctuations exceeding $1,200.

Key Levels:

Support Level: $86,000 (4-hour midline) and $84,500 (daily Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level);

Resistance Level: $88,500 (previous high resistance) and $90,000 (psychological level and area of concentrated positions).

Volume Signal: Trading volume decreased by 15% in the past 6 hours, and there is insufficient upward price momentum, warranting caution against short-term pullback risks.

📊 Technical Analysis in Depth

1️⃣ Trend and Momentum

Bull-Bear Battle: The daily MACD red bars are shortening, and the RSI (76) has exited the overbought zone but has not formed a clear divergence; the market may continue to show a range-bound trend in the short term.

Key Structure: The 4-hour chart shows an “ascending triangle” pattern; if the price breaks above $88,500, it may open up upward space; conversely, it may retest the $86,000 support zone.

2️⃣ Indicator Alerts

Overbought Risk: The 1-hour RSI (72) is close to the overbought threshold; if the price cannot hold above $87,500, the risk of technical sell-offs increases.

Capital Flow: Open interest contracts increased by 12%, but the long-short ratio decreased to 1.2:1, indicating weakened bullish confidence in the short term.

🌍 Market Drivers

1️⃣ Policy Factors

Federal Reserve Dovish Signals: Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, the US Dollar Index has fallen to the 102 level, and improved liquidity supports risk assets;

Regulatory Dynamics: The US SEC plans to tighten regulations on privacy coins, which may suppress altcoin enthusiasm in the short term, and some funds may flow back to BTC.

2️⃣ Capital Factors

ETF Inflows: Asian crypto ETFs saw a net inflow of $420 million in a single day, indicating active buying in Asia;

Whale Movements: Addresses holding over 1000 BTC increased their positions by 3.7%, showing an enhanced willingness to hold long-term.

Event-Driven: Ahead of the 21:30 US PPI data release, it is advisable to appropriately reduce positions and monitor to guard against volatility caused by unexpected data.

⚠️ Risk Warning

BTC options implied volatility has risen to 45%, extreme market conditions may trigger algorithmic trading; please exercise caution in managing risks during operations.

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