#SCDO #SCDO上币安

🔵 Real-time market overview

Current price: BTC current price is $87,935 (perpetual contract), a slight increase of 0.34% in 24 hours, and the intraday fluctuation exceeds $1,200.

Key points:

Support level: $86,000 (4-hour middle track) and $84,500 (daily Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level);

Resistance level: $88,500 (previous high pressure) and $90,000 (psychological barrier and chip concentration area).

Volume signal: The trading volume has dropped by 15% in the past 6 hours, and the price increase momentum is insufficient. Be alert to the risk of short-term correction.

📊 Technical analysis

1️⃣ Trend and momentum

Bull-bear game: The red column of the daily MACD is shortened. Although the RSI (76) has left the overbought zone, it has not yet formed a clear divergence. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Key structure: The 4-hour chart shows an "ascending triangle" pattern. If the price breaks through $88,500, it may open up upward space; otherwise, it may fall back to the $86,000 support range.

2️⃣ Indicator warning

Overbought risk: The 1-hour RSI (72) is close to the overbought threshold. If the price cannot stabilize at $87,500, the risk of technical selling will increase.

Capital flow: Open interest increased by 12%, but the long-short ratio dropped to 1.2:1, indicating that short-term bullish confidence has weakened.

🌍 Market drivers

1️⃣ Policy

Fed’s dovish signal: market expectations for rate cuts rise, the US dollar index falls to the 102 mark, and improved liquidity supports risky assets;

Regulatory dynamics: The US SEC intends to tighten regulation of privacy coins, which may suppress the popularity of altcoins in the short term, and some funds may flow back to BTC.

2️⃣ Funding

ETF capital inflows: Asian crypto ETFs had a net inflow of US$420 million in a single day, indicating active buying in Asia;

Whale movements: 1000+ BTC holding addresses increased their holdings by 3.7%, and their willingness to hold long-term positions increased.

Event-driven: Before the release of the US PPI data at 21:30, you can appropriately reduce your positions and wait and see to prevent fluctuations caused by data exceeding expectations.

⚠️ Risk warning

The implied volatility of BTC options has risen to 45%, and extreme market conditions may trigger programmatic trading. Please carefully control risks when operating.

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