In recent days, BTC has not broken through and may test a downward trend

Market sentiment and confidence are insufficient

• Funding rates turn negative: According to data from CryptoQuant, although the price of Bitcoin rose to $88,786 on March 26, its funding rate turned negative, indicating that traders are unwilling to pay a premium to open new long positions in the perpetual contract market, showing signs of a cooling demand for leverage.

• Decrease in stablecoin lending costs: On the decentralized lending platform Aave, the lending costs for stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have dropped to around 4%, indicating that risk-averse sentiment is spreading into the cryptocurrency sector.

• Low retail activity: Current retail investor activity is low, leading to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Meanwhile, some long-term Bitcoin holders choose to stay on the sidelines, waiting for more favorable exit opportunities. This 'reluctance to sell' mentality has intensified selling pressure in the market, increasing the vulnerability of price fluctuations.

Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty

• Poor macroeconomic conditions: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts that by the end of the first quarter of 2025, US GDP will contract by 2.8%, a catastrophic forecast compared to the 3.9% growth predicted four weeks ago. Additionally, the tariff policy proposed by Trump has had a negative impact on the Bitcoin market.

• Policy uncertainty: The market is concerned about the new round of tariff plans that the Trump administration intends to announce on April 2, and this macro policy uncertainty may again become a trigger for breaking the balance in the cryptocurrency market.

Technical analysis and market resistance

• Range-bound oscillation pattern: Since March, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $76,000 and $95,000, lacking a clear catalyst for breaking through this range, making it difficult for the market to gain sustained upward momentum.

• Key resistance levels suppressing: From a technical analysis perspective, there may be certain technical resistance near $88,888, as Bitcoin encounters selling pressure when approaching this price level, making it difficult for the price to break through further.