I. Redefine the essence of contracts: The game of probability and leverage

Imagine contract trading as a data wager between weather stations: Institution A bets that the rainfall tomorrow will exceed 50mm, while Institution B believes it will not exceed 30mm. Both sides price their predictions with funds, and the final profit and loss are settled based on actual data. Cryptocurrency contracts are the same, except the underlying assets are the price fluctuations of BTC and ETH.

Core rule reconstruction:

  • Leverage coefficient ≠ profit amplifier: 10x leverage is like attaching a rocket booster to a bicycle; even a slight bump during acceleration can lead to loss of control. Mainstream platforms provide 3-100x leverage, but exceeding 20x is like dancing on a tightrope.

  • The double-edged sword of the deposit system: The design that allows entry with a minimum of 5U essentially lowers the threshold as bait. It's like an amusement park giving away free roller coaster tickets, but the safety belt requires extra payment.

  • The dark box of long and short competition: The liquidation line settings in exchanges and the funding rate mechanism quietly change the probability of winning and losing. Statistics show that the liquidation volume from 3 AM to 5 AM is 37% higher than during the day, which is strongly correlated with programmed trading periods.

II. Three weapons for beginners

Weapon 1: Opening decision tree

  • Choose ETH/USDT quarterly contracts (high liquidity, moderate volatility)

  • Click 'Limit Long' instead of market order (reduce slippage losses)

  • Leverage is inversely proportional to volatility (suggest ≤10x when BTC has a 2% daily volatility)

Weapon 2: Risk control dashboard
Assuming a principal of 1000U opens a 5x leverage long position on SOL:

  • Actual leveraged funds = 1000×5=5000U

  • Set 3% dynamic profit-taking + 2% hard stop-loss (trigger line moves automatically)

  • Liquidation price = opening price × [1 - (5 × 1%)] = forced liquidation at a drop of 5%

Weapon 3: Position allocation cube

  • Divide funds into tactical compartment (3%), strategic compartment (7%), reserve compartment (90%)

  • Do not exceed 50% of the tactical compartment for the first position (i.e., total funds 1.5%)

  • After profits exceed 20%, some profits can be transferred to the strategic compartment

III. Survival rules strictly followed by experienced players

Death Trap 1: Leverage superstition

  • At 100x leverage, 1% fluctuation = principal goes to zero

  • Real data: On the first day of the ORDI contract listing in 2023, the survival rate of accounts using over 50x leverage was only 4.3%

  • Anti-fragile strategy: Build positions with 3x leverage, increase to 5x after floating profits reach 50%

Death Trap 2: High-frequency trading addiction

  • Each trade incurs a fee of 0.078%, with an average of 10 trades per day resulting in an annualized fee rate exceeding 280%

  • The exchange's 'brushing order rebate' is actually an addiction mechanism, with the rebate ratio less than 15% of the fees

  • Smart solution: Limit transactions to 3 times per week, set automatic profit-taking and stop-loss

Death Trap 3: KOL dependency syndrome

  • The signal provider manipulates followers through 'long and short positions + selective order placement'

  • Third-party data shows that a certain million-followers KOL has an actual win rate of only 41%, but displays a win rate as high as 76%

  • The solution: Use on-chain data to verify messages (e.g., abnormal movements of whale wallets + net inflow to exchanges)

Survival toolbox:

  1. Simulated training requires at least 200 valid trades (with a stable win rate of over 52%)

  2. Establish a 'circuit breaker mechanism': Stop trading for three days if daily losses reach 5%

  3. Create an emotion log: Record the greed/fear index (1-10) for each trade

Endgame thinking: Use mathematics to navigate bull and bear markets

The core competitiveness of top traders is not predictive ability, but building probability advantages through formulas:

Long-term returns = (win rate × average profit rate) − (loss rate × average loss rate) long-term returns = (win rate × average profit rate) − (loss rate × average loss rate)

Assuming your win rate is 55%, average profit 8%, loss controlled at 4%, then:
(0.55×0.08)−(0.45×0.04)=0.026(0.55×0.08)−(0.45×0.04)=0.026
That is, the net profit per trade is 2.6%, and monthly compound interest can reach 58%. This reveals a truth: survival is more important than high profits. Newbies should set the goal for the first three months as 'cumulative loss ≤ 10%'. Only when you can maintain this red line in a volatile market can you truly obtain an entrance ticket. Remember: the market always rewards players who tame human nature with discipline.