—— Exclusive interpretation of the latest policies from the SFC, seize the biggest compliance dividend in 2025!

🔥 Policy Update: The gateway for Hong Kong crypto ETFs is officially open!

On March 25, 2025, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released (Virtual Asset ETF Issuance Guidelines), announcing that institutional applications will be accepted starting April 1, with the first products expected to be listed as early as June! This is another milestone in the global crypto market after the US Bitcoin ETF, expected to attract over $5 billion in new funds!

Key Policy Highlights:

  1. Eligible Tokens: Limited to the top 20 by market cap, with compliance standards met (must pass SFC's 'Virtual Asset Applicability Assessment');

  2. Issuing Institutions: The first batch of licenses may go to licensed institutions like Huaxia Fund, Southern Eastern Ying, OSL Group, etc.;

  3. Trading Channel: Hong Kong stock accounts can directly subscribe, while mainland investors may participate indirectly through the 'Cross-border Wealth Management Connect'.

(Surging Market) After the announcement, BTC soared 8% in one hour, breaking through $82,000; ETH rebounded to $4,500, hitting a new high for the year!

🔍 Insider Prediction: These 5 tokens are most likely to be included in the first batch of ETFs!

1. Bitcoin BTC (Probability 99%)

  • Core Logic: The best global liquidity and highest regulatory recognition, Huaxia Fund has submitted a BTC spot ETF application.

  • On-chain Signal: In the past week, whale addresses increased holdings by over 32,000 BTC, with a cost price of $78,000.

2. Ethereum ETH (Probability 95%)

  • Policy Advantage: SFC explicitly supports 'smart contract platform tokens', with ETH 2.0 staking compliance already passed review.

  • Ecosystem Linkage: If the ETH ETF is approved, the Layer 2 sector (like OP, ARB) may rise by 30%+.

3. Ripple XRP (Probability 70%)

  • Compliance Label: After the settlement of the SEC lawsuit in 2024, XRP becomes the first token recognized as a 'non-security' by multiple countries;

  • Institutional Endorsement: Standard Chartered report states XRP will become the core target for cross-border payment ETFs.

4. Solana SOL (Probability 65%)

  • Comeback Opportunity: Despite being dragged down by FTX liquidation, daily active users on the Solana chain still exceed 1.6 million, and the technical committee has submitted a compliance improvement plan;

  • Risk Warning: If the selling pressure post-April unlock is not digested, the SFC may delay inclusion.

5. Huaxia Hong Kong Stock Connect Crypto Index (Dark Horse!)

  • Exclusive Intelligence: Huaxia Fund plans to launch a basket of token ETFs covering BTC, ETH, and leading Hong Kong blockchain stocks (like BC Technology, FA Southern Bitcoin);

  • Arbitrage Opportunity: Ambush small-cap targets (like CFX, ACH) before index component adjustments.

🚀 Must-See for Retail Investors: Three early positioning strategies

Strategy 1: Directly holding spot

  • Core Targets: BTC, ETH (highest margin of safety);

  • Operation Suggestion: Dollar-cost averaging + increase positions when breaking below the 30-day moving average, avoid short-term chasing highs.

Strategy 2: Ambush related ecosystems

  • Layer 2 Track: If ETH ETF is approved, Starknet (STRK), Optimism (OP) may benefit;

  • RWA Concept: BlackRock Hong Kong has applied for a bond tokenization fund, focusing on Polygon (MATIC), Ondo (ONDO).

Strategy 3: Leverage compliant platform tokens

  • Top Target: OSL Group (Hong Kong Stock Code: 863) stock price rose 67% this month, its custody business directly benefiting from the ETF launch;

  • Hedging Tool: Buy BTC call options (strike price $90,000) while shorting overvalued MEME coins.

⚠️ Risk Warning: These coins may be excluded from the ETF!

  • Anonymous Coins (XMR, ZEC): Violate SFC anti-money laundering provisions;

  • Algorithmic Stablecoins (USTC, FRAX): Require 1:1 anchoring to real assets, most currently do not meet standards;

  • Mainland China Concept Tokens (CFX, NEO): Avoid policy sensitivity, the first batch may proactively avoid.

Self-Check Tool: Log in to [SFC Official Website] to check token compliance ratings, or subscribe to [Bloomberg Terminal] for institutional holding changes.

📊 Bull-Bear Game: Is the ETF fully priced in or the beginning of a bull market?

  • Bull Camp: Grayscale report states that the Hong Kong ETF will attract funds from Asian family offices, with BTC looking bullish to $120,000 this year;

  • Bear Camp: After listing, there may be a reoccurrence of 'sell the news' sentiment, referring to the historical BTC dip of 20% after the US ETF approval.

📢 Voting Interaction: How will you position yourself?
👉 Heavy allocation in BTC/ETH 🆚 Betting on small tokens 🆚 Waiting for a dip

💡 Conclusion: Seizing the opportunity in the wave of compliance

The crypto market is transitioning from 'barbaric growth' to 'institutional dominance', and compliance will become the core measure of value. No matter which path you choose, please remember:

  1. Priority Liquidity: At the initial stage, the ETF will only support large-cap tokens, do not go all-in on obscure altcoins;

  2. Keep a close eye on the policy calendar: April 1 application launch, June listing may be critical volatility points;

  3. Diversify Risks: Allocate 20% of the position to Hong Kong stock blockchain stocks (like OSL, BC Technology) to hedge against token price fluctuations.

Immediately forward this article and follow Mr. He from Quant to receive (Hong Kong Crypto ETF Component Coin Prediction List) for free!
(Risk Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice, and the Hong Kong crypto ETF has not yet been officially approved.)

📌 Data Source

  • Hong Kong SFC (Virtual Asset ETF Issuance Guidelines): SFC Official Website

  • Progress on Huaxia Fund's BTC ETF Application: (South China Morning Post)

  • On-chain Holdings Data: CryptoQuant, Nansen

💬 Comment Section Interaction: Which type of ETF targets do you favor? Share your holding strategies!