The cryptocurrency TON (The Open Network) has recently attracted the attention of the crypto community again. Its price sharply rose after the news of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, returning to Dubai from France in March 2025, although the criminal case against him remains open. This surge was fueled by rumors of new investments from major players — so-called "whales." Many believe that the huge Telegram community could be the foundation for TON's success. But does this project have real prospects, or is it just a temporary hype? Let's figure it out.
What caused the rise of TON?🚀
Durov's return to Dubai was a landmark event for TON. After months of uncertainty due to his arrest in France in August 2024 for insufficient content moderation on Telegram, the news of his move to the UAE in March 2025 sparked a wave of optimism. The price of Toncoin reacted instantly and the token surged in price. Added to this were reports of interest from major investors who allegedly saw potential in TON due to its integration with Telegram and its 800 million audience.
Previously, TON had already shown similar spikes. For example, the launch of the TON Space wallet in Telegram in 2023 raised the price by 42% in a week. In 2024, the project burst into the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, reaching a peak of $25.9 billion. But is the current rise a sign of a stable future?
Why I don't believe in the long-term success of TON?🤔
Despite all the noise, I believe that TON does not have significant potential in the near future. Here are my arguments.
First of all, the main audience of TON wallets in Telegram is not investors, whales, or wealthy users, but children, teenagers, and ordinary people. This demographic has formed due to the popularity of "tap games" — games like Hamster Kombat or Notcoin, where tokens were earned through simple clicks. Such users are not ready to invest serious money or push the ecosystem forward.
Secondly, even scammers have lost interest in TON. According to reports from cybersecurity companies like Chainalysis, in 2024, the activity of fraudulent schemes in Telegram increased, but TON was increasingly less mentioned as a target for scammers. The reason is simple: there are no large "whales" in the network that attract fraudsters. Instead, scammers have switched to blockchains like Ethereum or Solana, where larger capital is concentrated.
Telegram community: Strength or weakness?💪
Supporters of TON often refer to 800 million Telegram users as a key advantage. The idea is simple: integrating wallets into the messenger could make TON mainstream. But is that the case? Most of these users perceive Telegram as a messenger rather than a platform for cryptocurrency investments. Those who do use TON usually limit themselves to small transactions or game tokens. This is not the audience that will attract serious investors.
Conclusion: TON is a temporary guest in the top🤷
Durov's return to Dubai and rumors of investments have raised TON to a new wave of popularity. The fast blockchain, integration with Telegram, and community support are the project's strengths. However, for now, TON remains a "playground" for small players rather than an arena for "whales." There are far more attractive projects on the market — from Ethereum with its DeFi ecosystem to Solana with its scalability. In my opinion, TON will not soon become interesting to large investors.
Can TON change the situation in the future? Perhaps if the project attracts a solvent audience and expands its ecosystem. But I remain skeptical for now. What do you think?
