Current market analysis
The current price is $86,730, which is below the cost price of short-term investors at $93,200. This means that short-term investors may want to sell to break even, leading to upward pressure.
If the price successfully breaks through $93,200 and stays above this level, it may indicate strong buying interest, suggesting a bullish market outlook.
Conversely, if the price continues to stay below $93,200, the market may experience a period of adjustment or consolidation, and short-term investors may further sell.
Price trend prediction
In the short term, $93,200 will be a key resistance level. If the price fails to break through, it may consolidate around this level or decline further. If it breaks through and stabilizes above this level, the market may welcome an upward trend.
Detailed report
Based on on-chain data analysis of Bitcoin's cost price for short-term investors and its impact on the current market and future price trends. The cost price for short-term investors is considered one of the most important indicators in on-chain data, reflecting the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The current date is March 25, 2025; based on this, we will analyze the current market situation and attempt to predict potential trends.
Methodology
We first identify the current Bitcoin price and the cost price of short-term investors. Price data comes from reliable cryptocurrency platforms like CoinMarketCap, while cost price data is obtained through data analysis, focusing on the average cost basis of short-term holders (holding period of less than 155 days).
Current Bitcoin price
Through CoinMarketCap, we obtained the current price of Bitcoin as of March 25, 2025, at $86,729.84, with a 24-hour change of 0.24%, a 24-hour low of $86,346.08, and a high of $88,758.73.
Cost price of short-term investors
The cost price of short-term investors is defined as the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. According to recent data analysis, the average cost basis for short-term holders is $93,200.
Comparison of price and cost price
The current price of $86,729.84 is below the cost price of $93,200, indicating that the price may recently have fallen from above the cost price to below it. The current Bitcoin price is below the cost price of short-term investors, who wish to sell to break even, resulting in significant selling pressure, hindering upward price movement. However, if it effectively breaks through (for example, exceeding a certain percentage), it indicates that the main force intends to push the price up, leading to a bullish outlook.
When the Bitcoin price is above the cost price, a decline will have support because short-term investors are optimistic about the future and do not want the cost price to be breached, while those who did not buy earlier wait to buy at the same cost, resulting in significant buying interest. However, if it effectively falls below, it indicates substantial profit-taking selling, and short-term investors may not support the price, potentially leading to a long adjustment or consolidation period, consuming profit chips.
Current market interpretation
Given that the current price is below the cost price of $86,729.84 vs. $93,200, upward price movement may encounter resistance near $93,200, as short-term investors may sell to break even, increasing selling pressure.
Recently, the price has fallen from above the cost price (e.g., $96,262.14) to below the cost price, aligning with the 'effective breakdown' scenario, which may trigger profit-taking selling or loss-selling, and the market may enter an adjustment period.
Future price trend prediction
In the short term: $93,200 will be a key resistance level. If the price fails to break through, it may consolidate around this level or decline further, reflecting the selling pressure from short-term investors.
Breakthrough possibility: If the price effectively breaks through $93,200 and stabilizes above this level, it indicates strong buying interest, potentially driving the price further up, with the market turning bullish.
Downward risk: If the price continues to stay below $93,200, the market may experience a long adjustment or consolidation period, and short-term investors may continue to sell, consuming market chips.
Conclusion
The current Bitcoin price is below the cost price of short-term investors, and the market may face upward resistance. Future trends depend on whether it can break through $93,200. If it breaks through, bullish signals will strengthen; if it remains below, it may enter an adjustment period. Investors should pay attention to this key level and market dynamics.
