1. Current price position and market structure

• Intraday high point: $88,807

• Intraday low point: $86,136

• Current Price: $86,981

Currently at the midpoint of the intraday rebound and pullback range, close to previous high resistance level with reduced increase, short-term stagnation risk exists.

2. Historically similar patterns

Similar trends have occurred in November 2023 and May 2024:

• Price enters high-level oscillation after continuous rise, followed by a rapid pullback.

• The technical pattern shows a typical 'high-level consolidation + indicator divergence', which often leads to a downward test of previous lows.

3. Current market sentiment and data support short-selling

Fear and Greed Index 46 (Neutral to Cautious) Investors are no longer optimistic.

Long-short ratio 1.8 (Bullish) Long positions are crowded, reverse operations have advantages.

ETF Fund Flow Net outflow Large holders reducing positions signal

Large holding addresses increase, likely transferring chips to prepare for selling pressure.

4. Technical indicators support short-selling

RSI 65 High-level overheating, may pull back at any time

MACD Golden cross but momentum weakens, showing signs of divergence, cautiously bullish.

Bollinger Bands Upper band pressure, band width contraction High-level oscillation, prone to downward change.

SAR has approached the reversal point. If the price breaks below previous support, SAR reversal confirms short-selling signal.

K-line pattern Upper shadow lines concentrated, bullish candlestick body shrinks, bulls are weak.

5. Short-selling strategy recommendation

Entry Price 87000-87300

Stop-loss Price 85200

Stop-loss Price 88000

Profit and Loss Ratio 1.8:1

6. Additional recommendations

: If the price breaks below 85800 with increased volume, consider adding positions.

: If it breaks 88000 and stands firm, immediately stop-loss and change strategy.

7. Although the macro trend is bullish, intraday momentum weakens, market is crowded, and indicator divergence gives clear signals—short-term downward demand exists, high probability for short-selling.

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