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Recently, the market has seen unusual upward movements, and amid a general rise in US stocks, the blockchain market is experiencing undercurrents!
Considering the 'reciprocal tariff' policy that the Trump administration will implement on April 2, it is highly probable that the major players have prepared two plans to respond to the changes👇
I. Short-term Pump Logic: News Combined with Market Sentiment
Release positive news: Referencing Ripple's tactics with XRP, create market heat by releasing information about 'regulatory easing' and 'technical breakthroughs', in conjunction with institutional buying to offload.
Also utilize the ambiguity in Trump's tariff policy regarding 'possible preferential treatment for certain countries' to fabricate expectations of 'policy shift favoring cryptocurrencies'. These pieces of information are deliberately made available to you.
II. Two Scenarios After Tariff Implementation
Plan A: Tariff Implementation (Analyst Prediction Probability 60%)
If Trump insists on reciprocal tariffs, risk market expectations will cool across the board, combined with skyrocketing global supply chain costs impacting crypto mining and hardware manufacturing and other real industries, the major players may preemptively dump assets to hedge.
(Referencing Fitch's report, tariffs may lead to a 1% increase in US inflation, and liquidity in the crypto market may further tighten.)
Plan B: Tariffs Deferred/Canceled (Probability 40%)
If the EU and other economies reach agreements to lower tariffs, market risk appetite may rebound, and the major players may take advantage to launch a 'retaliatory rebound', raising cryptocurrency prices to attract retail investors before offloading at an opportune time.
III. Response Suggestions
Beware of 'news market' traps: XRP once surged 4 times in a month due to rumors of an SEC lawsuit, but essentially it was market manipulation. Cross-verify on-chain data with project fundamentals for 'unexpected good news'.
Pay attention to on-chain signals: If a certain cryptocurrency experiences unusually large transfers or a surge in transaction volume before the news is released, it is highly likely that the major players are manipulating the market.
Position management priority: The current market volatility has reached a nearly 3-month peak, and it is recommended to retain over 50% stablecoins to cope with extreme market conditions.
Risk Warning: The crypto market is strongly correlated with the macro economy, and after the tariff policy is implemented, a 'black swan' chain reaction may occur. Do not blindly chase high prices; make rational decisions!
