Dogecoin (DOGE) is at a critical turning point in the market cycle, and cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez warns that its future trend may depend on a key price level — $0.16.
In his latest analysis on platform X, Martinez pointed out that since 2015, the price movement of Dogecoin has followed a steady upward trend, fluctuating between support and resistance levels in each market cycle. Currently, a key support zone has formed around $0.16; if it holds, it may trigger a new round of rebound; conversely, if it breaks down, it could lead to a deeper correction.
The eight-year upward trend channel on the Dogecoin weekly chart
Ali Martinez's bullish outlook is based on his technical analysis of the Dogecoin weekly chart. The analyst pointed out that since 2015, Dogecoin has been locked within an upward channel, defined over the years by higher highs and higher lows.
This structure continuously pushed the token to historical highs during the bull market while also defining the boundaries of corrections during the bear market. The channel itself is divided in half by an upward-sloping trendline, which serves as both support and resistance.
Martinez believes the same pattern may form again. Dogecoin's price encountered resistance near $0.48 in December 2024, after which it has been correcting downwards for the past three months. Currently, this meme coin is trading close to the downward trendline of the ascending channel, and its reaction here may determine its price trend for the remainder of this year.
A rebound from $0.16 could trigger a surge to $14
On the candlestick chart of Dogecoin (DOGE), a downward support trendline is writing its 'bull market code'.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez noted that in Q4 2024, DOGE surged 430% after rebounding from the $0.09 trendline in just a few months. Now, this key trendline has risen to $0.16 and has become a battleground for bulls and bears.
If support holds: DOGE could first rise to $2.5 (mid-channel), then head towards the upper limit of $14. If support fails: the trendline will move downwards, and DOGE may face a deeper adjustment.
As of the time of writing, DOGE is priced at $0.1754 (+3.5% in 24 hours). Can it hold above $0.16, or will it become the last line of defense for a bull market!
