#April 1st deadline is approaching! Federal Reserve QT, Trump tariffs, will the crypto market rebound or adjust?
Dear friends, from a macro market perspective, the biggest focus this week is the PCE inflation data to be released this Friday at 8:30 PM. As you know, Trump has been messing around with tariff policies, and everyone is worried that this could trigger high inflation, reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. Based on the data to be released this time, there are some slight bearish signals. The previous value of PCE and market expectations are both 2.5%, which hasn't changed, but the market expectation for core PCE has increased by 0.1 percentage points. It hasn't decreased; instead, it has risen, which is not a good sign.
However, don't panic too much; this is just an expectation, and the actual variables are still significant. For example, the CPI data released this month exceeded expectations, directly driving the capital markets to rise sharply. So, this time, the PCE data might also develop positively.
Additionally, the next time the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates has been confirmed, which will be during the monetary policy meeting on June 19. According to predictions, the probability of a single rate cut is 70%, and the probability of two rate cuts is 8.4%. Calculating this, the total probability of a rate cut reaches 78%, which is basically stable. But it's only March now, and June is still some time away; the related increases are expected to be reflected several months later.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's main action is to stop quantitative tightening, which will cease on April 1. Before that, as long as Trump doesn't mess things up, the overall market is still relatively optimistic.
Here is a question worth considering: When the Federal Reserve ends QT on April 1, will the crypto market experience a correction after the good news is fully priced in? From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, it is very likely. But don't forget, after April 1, Trump's tariff policy will take effect, which is a much larger bearish signal that could turn into good news. I must say, the timing chosen by the Federal Reserve is really clever, as it can counteract the bearish effects brought by Trump's policies.
Therefore, in my view, our current strategy is to accumulate coins when prices are low. After the tariffs' bearish effects are fully absorbed in early April, there will be fewer bearish news in the market, and at that time, the market is likely to experience a rebound for about a month. Let's wait to reap the benefits! #币安Alpha上新 #币安上线NIL
