【Bitcoin Plummets Below 90,000, Market Fear Index Hits Nearly 5-Month Low!】
On February 25, 2025, the cryptocurrency market faced a "Black Wednesday" — Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $90,000 mark for the first time since mid-January, hitting a low of $88,189, with a 24-hour drop of 6.8%; Ethereum (ETH) also plummeted by 12.5%, briefly dropping below $2,300, while Solana (SOL) crashed by 15.12% to $136.5. The derivatives market went into a frenzy, with over $1.3 billion in liquidation across the network, where long positions accounted for as much as 93.6%, leaving 360,000 investors devastated.
Triggers for the Plunge: Triple Negative Resonance
Macroeconomic Policy Shock: The Trump administration announced a national security investigation into copper imports, raising market concerns about a trade war escalation leading to a tightening of dollar liquidity; the vote on the Bitcoin investment bill in South Dakota was postponed, exacerbating sell-off due to unmet policy expectations. Institutional Funds Withdrawal: Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with a 47% surge in open interest for CME Bitcoin futures, triggering a domino effect of collective closures in institutional arbitrage positions. Market Sentiment Collapse: The Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 49 to 25, marking a new low since September 2024. After breaking below the critical support level of $93,500, a vicious cycle of "drop → sell-off → accelerated drop" formed.
Key Observation Points for the Future
Technical Aspect: If $93,500 cannot be reclaimed within 3 days, it may dip into the $70,000-$75,000 range; Policy Aspect: The U.S. PCE inflation data (to be released on February 26) and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike direction will determine the dollar's trend; Capital Aspect: A net flow breakthrough of +2 standard deviations in exchange net flow (30-day EMA) may indicate short-term stabilization.
The current market shows a "dual slaughter" pattern, with analysts like Arthur Hayes warning to be cautious of testing the $70,000 level, while long-term bulls still hope for a target price of $200,000. Investors are advised to maintain leverage below 3 times and focus on on-chain MVRV ratio and other risk indicators.
