During its halving, bitcoin’s mathematically-metered supply—or “issuance”—is cut in half. The halving has occurred roughly every four years since bitcoin’s inception during the Global Financial Crisis. Past halvings have taken place during the early stages of bitcoin bull markets. On April 19, however, bitcoin’s fourth halving led to a choppy market, until recently.
Although the launch of the US spot bitcoin ETFs in January bolstered market demand early in the year, other significant events increased supply in circulation thereafter. Chief among them were the release of long-dormant coins into circulation—those seized by the German and US governments, followed by repayments to Mt. Gox creditors.1
Our message to investors is that bitcoin’s performance is roughly in sync with the historical four-year cycles. As a result, we are optimistic about its prospects for the next six to twelve months. In this paper, we examine the cyclical dynamics that should continue to shape bitcoin’s long-term market performance.
Bitcoin Halving Cycles
In April, the issuance of bitcoin was cut in half from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin per block. Since then, as of November 13, its price has increased 41.2% from $64,013 to $90,446, underperforming the last two post-halving periods during which it appreciated 53.3% and 122.5%, respectively, by this time in the cycle, as shown below.2