Today I will answer a question from a new member. This partner said their friend made a lot of money from swing trading, but they are just hoarding coins and doing value investing, and they haven't made much profit, feeling like a fool. How should they adjust their mindset?
So, I think this partner's situation might be very similar to that of most old investors in the market. The successful experiences learned in the last bull market seem to have less effect in this round. However, on the other hand, at least you are still making a profit. Being able to make money in such a market already puts you ahead of 90% of people, and maybe I’m being relatively conservative here. You are still among the top 10% in this market.
So, why are we still so painful? Actually, it stems from a saying in the crypto world: 'Seeing others make money is more painful than losing money yourself.' The pain here actually comes from comparison. Why do some say that losing less is earning? That’s because in a bear market, everyone is losing money; if you can lose 20% less than your neighbor, you might be incredibly happy because relatively, you have earned something. So, this is a very strange thing: clearly, everyone's account is shrinking, wealth is decreasing, but human nature can create all sorts of seemingly nonsensical theories to explain the rationality of their behavior.
Similarly, in a bull market, everyone is making money; if others earn more and faster than you, you will still feel uncomfortable, especially when those around you, clearly, your wealth and their wealth are increasing, but why do we still feel this pain? Actually, have you noticed that it’s because we have added an opponent to ourselves, creating a hypothetical enemy role. As long as you haven’t defeated them, you will fall into endless pain, especially when this opponent is someone we subconsciously consider to be 'less than us', then this pain index will double.
So, your friend made a lot from swing trading, but it’s very likely that—understand me here, it’s possible that before he made a lot, his principal had already lost 30%, he just didn’t tell you. Maybe he sold at the highest point, but is it possible that in the future, at the lowest point, he didn’t buy everything back? It’s all possible, or he only bought a little; or he bought in all at once only to see the market crash further, right? These are all very likely occurrences. As long as this game continues, there will always be winners and losers, which is perfectly normal.
As long as you have watched the video I posted about members in my group, called 'The Quantum Superposition Theory of Financial Markets', then you should understand: you are not playing the same game; you are not in the same dimension, you are not competing on the same track, so there is no comparability.
The root of suffering for most of us actually lies in our tendency to compare ourselves with others and overly focus on immediate feedback, which leaves us exhausted, chasing timely information in the market, right? For example, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, or the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, right? For example, this Hyperliquid whale opening long positions again, right? For example, Twitter, with thousands of messages every day, we tire ourselves out in this information overload, which is something ingrained in our human genes and is hard to change.
You are like me, recently posting some videos on B station, there are some people, when you click into their homepage, you can tell at a glance that they are students with little social experience, yet they will make bold claims in my comment section, thinking they can compare with me. Do you think there's any comparability? If you win, if you really win, then what does it matter? There’s really no need. Just focus on yourself and walk your own path.
So, now those holding 'big coins', I believe they are definitely the most impressive and strong people in the market, right? Because they have lost the least and earned the most. However, if you think about it, if Ethereum rises to 20,000 in the future while big coins stagnate, won't there be many people coming out to mock: 'You holders of big coins are fools!'? Right? Similarly, if you are now holding Ethereum, you will also be mocked by those who in the future rush for dog coins and achieve 50 times or 100 times: 'You don’t understand the need to keep up with the times!'
This market is just like this, where there are rises and falls, where many stand up, there are many who fall down; when you finish singing, I come on stage, and so on, continuously cycling. As long as you survive and make fewer mistakes, you can outpace these people who keep popping up, and you have already won. As long as this game continues, in the short term, there will always be fools, and there will always be genius traders; there’s no way around it. Moreover, most of the time, what we see is just what others want us to see. We all see others getting rich overnight by buying Ripple, but we don’t see that they waited for 8 years—waiting for 8 years, 8 years of youth for financial freedom. If it were you, would you be willing to wait those 8 years? How many are willing to wait?
If during this decline you feel more and more pressure and fear, you should seriously reflect on yourself: Do you really understand what you are doing? Ha, do you really understand the value of the currency you are buying? Right? You must not rush in just because the captain said value investing is good—this is also not acceptable. If you are feeling fear, it indicates: first, you might not understand the currency you are investing in well enough; second, is it possible that you have serious issues with position management and cash flow? Is your operation too aggressive? At such times, it is when we can reflect, summarize, and make quick progress.
The strength of a person essentially comes from the strength of their own values. What I am sharing here is also the value of long-termism; this is what I sell, right? There’s nothing to shy away from; this is why there are millions of big shots in my group paying for access, while those big influencers who constantly give signals will never encounter such people. Right? This is the so-called 'attraction of values', right? Like attracts like. So, people have made it clear, right? They have made it clear that they have passed the stage of seeking outside validation. They say, 'I don’t need you to tell me when to buy or sell, I don’t want to know.' So, the purpose of joining the group is purely to find someone on the same frequency to exchange a few words, right? Because there are too few people around to communicate with, right? Therefore, the road to the peak is actually not crowded at all, because there’s a saying: 'The great road is very broad, yet people prefer the shortcuts.' Everyone is seeking speed, so ultimately, returning to our investment, whether in the crypto world or stock market, the core idea is: we should do what we need to do, focusing on hard work, not on the harvest. If the time hasn’t come, it hasn’t come; when it’s time to farm, we should just farm well; no harvest means it’s simply not the time for harvest; not being at harvest time does not mean there won’t be a harvest. Because one day, there will be a harvest. On that day, all your pain and doubts will vanish.
Just because we didn't do well in one exam doesn't mean our final overall score will also be bad. The difference between short-term and long-term is actually: we want to go to a place, and there's a river in the middle; short-term might just mean jumping down and swimming across; while long-term investment means: I won’t jump down yet, I'll first build a boat on this shore, and once the boat is ready, I’ll run over there—one is safe and the other is faster. Although short-term might not provide immediate feedback like jumping in, in the long run, at least I can save my life, and later it’s not certain who will be faster, right?
So, there’s no need to be anxious. For those partners who haven’t joined the group yet, or if you agree with the captain’s values, you can join the group.
Success is not accidental; opportunities are also reserved for those who are prepared. Follow me, a captain skilled in medium to short-term swing arbitrage, and in the future's coin trading journey, regardless of market conditions, I will walk alongside you.
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Impermanence belt
Impermanence belt
