This cycle has a total of 3 clearly defined trend phases: the 1st phase from October 2023 to January 2024 (BTC from $27,000 to $47,000); the 2nd phase from January 2024 to March 2024 (BTC from $40,000 to $73,000); the 3rd phase from October 2024 to January 2025 (BTC from $60,000 to $108,000); each of these phases can be perfectly measured in terms of potential change using the 'MVRV extreme deviation pricing indicator.'

Today, I will make another less reliable 'metaphysical' prediction using this indicator, and we will look back in 2026 to see how accurate it is.

（图1）

Prediction 1,
Looking at the entire process from decay to end in the last trend (March 2024), the BTC price started from the purple line and ended at the yellow line; the retracement range dropped from 1 to 4, a decrease of 4 levels. In the current trend (December 2024), it started from the red line and is currently consolidating near the green line, with the retracement range dropping from 2 to 5, also a decrease of 4 levels.

Considering that there was a certain positive expectation for the year-end election market last time, and this time there is significant uncertainty in macro data, my expectation is 'a further drop of 1 level'; that is, the retracement range may seek a bottom around the blue line; the current blue line is around $75,000 (it will fluctuate over time).

Prediction 2,
Assuming the next trend (the market does not go directly bearish), since the last high point was at the purple line and this high point is at the red line, the probability of the next high point reaching the purple line ($127,000) is almost zero; the more likely scenario is reaching the orange line ($106,000), with a maximum not exceeding the red line ($116,000, very low probability).

Prediction 3,
If an unexpected event causes the BTC price to drop below $72,000, and the subsequent rebound cannot effectively stay above $92,000, when both conditions are met, there is a risk of the market transitioning to a bear market (the basis for this point will be explained in our next post).

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By the way, in July 2024, I used the 'three-line unified' metaphysics method to predict 4 unreliable prophecies, namely:
1. The lower boundary of the retracement channel from July to September is $49,500;
2. In October to November, BTC price will return above $70,000;
3. There will be a significant retracement from December to January;
4. In March to April 2025, MVRV will be above 3.

So far, the first three have been realized, and the fourth is highly likely to be unachievable. As a 'data analyst and metaphysical prophet (this title is a bit long...)', having a 75% hit rate is still not bad. I wonder if this time it will ruin my reputation, haha...

PS: There is a premise here, that there are no recession, crashes, pandemics, or other black swan events in 2025.

My sharing is for learning and communication purposes only and not as investment advice.