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BITCOIN: The Ultimate Cycle Model Calls for $160K!

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding following yesterday’s Fed Rate Decision. Technically, the rebound started 10 days ago after the market nearly bottomed on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is the strongest long-term Support level, as it is where BTC hit lows and rebounded on August 05, 2024, and September 11, 2023. However, this is not the only key support.

With the 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle pattern forming a Channel Up, this model has been guiding price action and helps estimate future movements. Given that, it’s also supported by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which has historically reinforced bullish momentum at key points.

The 1W RSI is acting as the third Support, having just bounced off its two-year Support level, aligning with the previous rebounds of September 07, 2024, and September 11, 2023.

It’s also important to recognize that the Channel Up can be divided into two phases:

• Phase 1 (Green Channel Up): Traded within the 0.0 - 1.0 Fibonacci range.

• Phase 2 (Blue Channel Up): Trades within the 0.5 - 1.5 Fibonacci range.

The symmetry within these patterns is striking—both Bullish Legs of Phase 1 have rallied +100.64%. If Phase 2 follows this same pattern, as the Bearish Legs have also been nearly identical, we can reasonably expect the new Bullish Leg to rise by +121.48%, just like the previous one (Aug - Dec 2024).

That projection leads us to an estimated price target of $160,000.