The Solana futures contract (SOL) was officially launched on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). However, compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) previously, the level of interest is not too explosive. Is SOL being undervalued?
A Modest Start With 12 Million USD in Trading
📌 The first day of trading SOL futures on #CME reached a total trading value of 12.3 million USD
📌 The total open interest closed at 7.8 million USD
⚠️ Compared to $BTC and $ETH when launched on CME, this figure is significantly lower:
🔹 Bitcoin futures (2017): 103 million USD traded/day, 20.9 million USD open interest.
🔹 Ethereum futures (2022): 31 million USD traded/day, 20 million USD open interest.
👉 Looking at the absolute figures, SOL futures seem to start weaker than BTC and ETH.
Is Reality That Bad? A Perspective from K33 Research
Although trading volume is lower than BTC and ETH, Vetle Lunde – Head of Research at K33 Research – provides a different perspective:
🧐 When comparing by market capitalization at the time of launch, Solana's trading level is quite comparable to BTC and ETH.
📢 “If you normalize trading volume against market capitalization at launch, this figure is actually close to BTC and ETH,” Lunde wrote on X.
⏳ What does this mean?
BTC futures launched when the market was at the peak of the growth cycle (2017).
ETH futures appeared during the boom period in early 2022.
SOL futures were launched while the market was weakening, coupled with the decline of meme coin projects on Solana causing SOL's price to plummet.
💡 When comparing by market timing, the SOL futures contract $SOL is not necessarily weaker than BTC and ETH.
SOL Is Facing Difficulties – Will the Price Recover?
Currently, SOL is trading around 125 USD, down 2.5% on the day and more than 8% from the peak last weekend.
📉 Compared to SOL's all-time high at the end of January, the current price has dropped over 50%.
📢 Previously, Lunde noted that the current market is not like the time when BTC and ETH futures were launched:
BTC futures appeared right at the peak of the 2017 bubble.
ETH futures were launched during one of the craziest years in the crypto market.
🛑 What about SOL?
The crypto market has not really returned to a strong growth state.
Solana is affected by the collapse of several meme coins within its ecosystem.
📊 Nevertheless, Solana remains a blockchain chosen by many DeFi and NFT projects, with a strong developing ecosystem.
Is the SOL Futures Contract Worth Waiting For?
✅ If viewed by market capitalization, SOL futures are not significantly weaker compared to BTC and ETH at launch.
✅ The current market is not like 2017 or 2022 – SOL futures may need time to develop.
✅ Solana is still one of the strongest developing blockchains, despite facing market pressure.
💡 So, is the SOL futures contract worth tracking?
If the market recovers, trading volume and open interest of SOL futures may increase significantly.
Being listed by CME is a positive signal, helping SOL attract more institutional investors.
📌 Can Solana break through in the near future? Or will this futures contract fade into obscurity? Let's wait and see!