📊 Key Data Dispatch

  • Daily Net Outflow: $11.7459 million (market's short-term divergence evident)

  • Grayscale ETHE inflow against the trend: $10.1606 million (some funds are taking advantage of low prices)

  • Historical Cumulative Net Inflow: $2.448 billion (long-term funds still dominate)

🔍 Signals Behind Capital Flows

  1. Sources of Short-term Pressure

    • Mini ETF fund withdrawals reflect retail investors' caution about ETH's short-term trends, with increased watchfulness amid repeated struggles around the $2000 threshold.

    • Macroeconomic uncertainty (Federal Reserve interest rate decisions) has led some funds to shift towards defensive assets.

  2. Institutional Perspective on Counter-Cyclical Operations

    • Grayscale ETHE inflow may indicate institutional recognition of ETH's 'value bottom,' with the historically low ETH/BTC exchange rate (0.046) enhancing allocation attractiveness.

  3. Underlying Logic for Long-term Holdings

    • ETF holdings account for only 2.86% of ETH's circulating market value, compared to Bitcoin ETF's 31% penetration rate, indicating significant incremental space.

    • Technical Support: After the Cancun upgrade, Layer 2 trading costs decreased by 50%, and the staking rate steadily rose to 26% (data: Glassnode).

🎯 Investor Strategy Recommendations

  • Short-term Watch Range: Focus on the $1950-$2000 support zone; if broken, be wary of accelerated pullbacks triggered by leveraged liquidations.

  • Long-term Layout Window: If the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains low, consider building positions gradually, with a focus on tracking two major catalysts:

    1. Policy Expectations: Further progress on the approval of Ethereum ETFs by the US SEC;

    2. Ecosystem Recovery: DeFi TVL rebound and Layer 2 user growth data.

  • Opportunities in Related Tracks:
    → Layer 2 Tokens (OP, ARB)
    → Staking Services (LDO, RPL)
    → RWA Track Leaders (MKR)

⚠️ Risk Warning

  • Regulatory Dynamics: If the SEC classifies ETH as a security, it will impact ETF fund flows

  • Competitive Ecosystem: Competition for developer resources from high-performance chains like Solana

📌 Conclusion

Short-term volatility does not change ETH's core value; technological upgrades and low institutional holdings are building momentum for long-term growth. Investors are advised to focus on medium-term buying points after pullbacks, avoiding excessive speculation on short-term price fluctuations.

#ETH